印度宣稱GDP超越日本，躍居世界第四

據新華社，印度新聞信息局12月29日發布的年終經濟評估報告顯示，印度國內生產總值（GDP）當前已超過日本，成為世界第四大經濟體，有望三年內趕超德國。

India has surpassed Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy with a size of $4.18 trillion, and is poised to overtake Germany to become the third-largest by 2030, the government has said.

圖源：NDTV

這篇題為《2025年，印度經濟增長的關鍵之年》的報告寫道，印度是全球增長最快的主要經濟體之一，并具備保持這一勢頭的良好條件。“印度GDP達4.18萬億美元，超過日本成為世界第四大經濟體，且有望在今后兩年半到三年內取代德國，躋身世界前三。到2030年，印度GDP預計將增至7.3萬億美元。”

"With GDP valued at $4.18 trillion, India has surpassed Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy, and is poised to displace Germany from the third rank in the next 2.5 to 3 years with a projected GDP of $7.3 trillion by 2030," according to a government release providing a snapshot of reforms in 2025.

據印度時報，官方最終要以國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）2026年發布的年度GDP核算數據為準。

A final confirmation will depend on the data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the first half of 2026 when the final figures for 2025 will be released.

國際貨幣基金組織此前預測，到2026年，印度GDP將達4.51萬億美元，日本GDP同期預計為4.46萬億美元，屆時印度將超過日本。

今年8月，美國因印度持續購買俄羅斯原油對其加征巨額關稅，引發外界對印度經濟擔憂，但印度政府對本國經濟前景仍保持樂觀態度。報告說，印度經濟的持續增長，體現了其“在全球貿易持續不確定性下的韌勁”。

New Delhi's upbeat assessment comes despite economic worries after Washington in August hit New Delhi with huge tariffs over its purchases of Russian oil.

India said continued growth reflects its "resilience amid persistent global trade uncertainties".

記者8月21日在印度首都新德里拍攝的街景 圖源：新華社

不過，從其他一些衡量指標來看，印度經濟前景可能“沒那么樂觀”。世界銀行數據顯示，2024年印度人均GDP僅為2694美元，為同期日本人均GDP（32487美元）的十二分之一，是德國人均GDP（56103美元）的二十分之一。

報告顯示，印度14億人口中，超過四分之一群體介于10歲至26歲。“作為世界上最年輕的國家之一，印度的經濟增長前景取決于其能否創造高質量就業崗位，從而有效吸納不斷增長的勞動力，實現包容性和可持續性增長。”

Government figures show that more than a quarter of India's 1.4 billion people are aged between 10 and 26. Creating enough well-paid jobs for millions of young graduates is an upcoming hurdle, but the report offered a rosy outlook.

"As one of the world's youngest nations, India's growth story is being shaped by its ability to generate quality employment that productively absorbs its expanding workforce and delivers inclusive, sustainable growth," a note in the review said.

來源：新華社 印度時報 NDTV AFP

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