大洋馬夫“國際加油站”第15期：烏克蘭戰爭就是“天坑”，原本美國“導演”設計的“鐵鍋燉大鵝”的劇本走形了

烏克蘭戰爭就是一個巨大的“天坑”，也好似一口巨大的鈍刀割肉鹵煮的大鐵鍋，在突突的冒著青煙，而不是美國希望的咕嘟嘟的冒著白煙。最初美國“導演”和歐洲及北約“群演”的劇本是“鐵鍋燉大鵝”（俄羅斯就是那只被鹵煮的大鵝），烏克蘭“領銜主演”。可是如今的“劇情”走勢有些讓美歐情何以堪了呢！越看越讓人脊背發冷汗：誰耗死誰還不確定呢？估計得十數年之后見分曉！還是看看這“坑中”的眾生相吧，也不知道最后誰會被煮掉、被燉了？

烏克蘭開始很勇敢并主動地跳了進去，但也是被摔得最慘的那個，跌在了坑底；脊椎雖然沒有摔斷，斷胳膊斷腿兒的，腿腳兒已經不好使了。最嚴重的是被俄羅斯給“掏肛”了（烏克蘭的地圖就像一頭非洲鬣狗，頓巴斯地區為代表的烏東四州就相當于烏克蘭的肛門；本來鬣狗是善于掏肛的，沒有想到反被掏肛了，即頓巴斯地區已經落入俄羅斯的口袋之內了），烏東四州和克里米亞半島已經不保了。開戰之初，我個人曾經預測，這場烏克蘭戰爭下來的結局是被打出個東西烏克蘭來，瞧著如今局面，估計烏克蘭會更慘。

俄羅斯也毫不客氣地跳進去了，只可惜北極熊身大體笨的，剛跳進入就被扭著腳脖子了，身上也被美國的鈍刀暗中給揦了好幾道口子，流著血呢！好在俄羅斯的自我治愈能力還是比較強的，再加上俄羅斯這頭北極熊皮糙肉厚的，邊淌血邊止血、邊正骨邊揍烏克蘭。一副滾刀肉、混不吝、不服就干的孬種樣子。當然，俄羅斯也不會坐以待斃地，一邊還得要搞生產自救的同時，一邊也搖了幾個“小弟”諸如朝鮮和伊朗等在外圍打救援，尤其是朝鮮可謂是鐵哥們兒，直接下場了，朝鮮表現地非常的仗義，當然也是為了自身地生存考慮。

美國雖然沒有直接地跳進坑中，但在烏克蘭跳入“坑中”之前甩出來的一條鐵鏈子鎖住了一條腿，想離開也不是很容易；再說了烏克蘭的資源還是非常的豐富的，美國心心念念的，更不能便宜了俄羅斯這頭北極熊。留在“坑中”的俄羅斯在暴揍著烏克蘭，美國只能眼睜睜地在“坑口”看著，真要跳下去，俄羅斯急眼了，自己不死也得一身傷。只能夠在“坑口”偶爾向俄羅斯扔幾塊磚頭，暗下黑手，讓俄羅斯有點兒首尾不相顧。總之，俄羅斯的處境也不是太好過，一邊防著烏克蘭回擊，一邊還得防著美國黑手。當然，美國也好不到哪兒去？想解開纏套在腿上的鐵鎖鏈（也是沒有問題的），但自己的“小弟”肯定會被俄羅斯揍死“坑中”，可謂是進退兩難。

歐盟和北約這一種美國的“小弟”，好家伙、幾十位呢，這時候都跟過來并站到了“坑邊”上，面對烏克蘭的呼救，已經抓到了烏克蘭在坑中仍上來的救命繩索了，就是沒有人敢跳進坑中，和俄羅斯這個大塊兒頭兒直接開干，一邊瘋狂咆哮般的辱罵俄羅斯，一邊又在給烏克蘭加油打氣助威。歐盟和北約這一幫子慫貨呢，可謂是攢雞毛湊撣子而已，干嚎，偶爾偷襲一下俄羅斯，但就是將烏克蘭拉不上來啊！再說了，俄羅斯脾氣怪，揍美國容易兩敗俱傷，揍歐盟和北約還是很有想法的，俄羅斯一瞪眼，歐盟就嚇得縮頭回去了。時間越長，對烏克蘭越不利。慢慢的，歐盟和北約有點兒不耐煩了，有些坐不住了，開始對俄羅斯齜牙咧嘴的同時，要擼胳膊、挽袖子，準備動手了，這就是最近這段時間，歐盟方面放出話來，要組建“歐洲聯軍”，甚至喊出要和俄羅斯開仗見仗緣由了。歐盟和北約會主動跳入“坑中”嗎？大概率不會。

（以下是英文版 The next is English edition）

“Golabal Refuel Station” Episode 15: The Ukraine War is a "Bottomless Pit." The Original Script Directed by the US for "Stewing the Big Goose" Has Gone Off Track

(Monday Evening, December 29, 2025)

The Ukraine war is a massive "bottomless pit," akin to a large, blunt knife slowly simmering meat in a pot, emitting wisps of blue smoke rather than the rolling white steam the US had hoped for. Initially, the script directed by the US and performed by Europe and NATO as "supporting actors" was to "stew the big goose" (with Russia as the goose being simmered), with Ukraine in the leading role. However, the current "plot" has taken a turn that leaves the US and Europe in an awkward position. The longer one observes, the more spine-chilling it becomes: who will exhaust whom remains uncertain! It may take over a decade to see the outcome. Let’s examine the various actors in this "pit" and ponder who might end up being stewed or boiled.

Ukraine bravely and proactively jumped into the pit but suffered the most severe fall, landing at the bottom. Although its spine wasn’t broken, its limbs were fractured, leaving it barely functional. The most critical blow was being "gutted from behind" by Russia (Ukraine’s map resembles an African hyena, with the Donbas region, representing the four eastern oblasts, akin to Ukraine’s rear end. While hyenas are skilled at attacking from behind, Ukraine found itself on the receiving end, as the Donbas region has now fallen into Russia’s grasp). The four eastern oblasts and the Crimean Peninsula are already lost. At the start of the war, I personally predicted that the outcome would be a division of Ukraine into east and west. Given the current situation, Ukraine’s fate may be even worse.

Russia also jumped into the pit without hesitation, but the Polar bear, being large and clumsy, twisted its ankle upon entry and suffered several hidden cuts from the US’s blunt knife, leaving it bleeding. Fortunately, Russia possesses strong self-healing capabilities and, with its thick skin and resilience, continues to fight Ukraine while tending to its wounds. It exhibits a defiant, unruly attitude, refusing to back down and ready to fight at any moment. Of course, Russia is not sitting idly by. While engaging in self-sustaining efforts, it has also called upon "allies" like North Korea and Iran for external support. North Korea, in particular, has proven to be a loyal friend, directly involving itself in the conflict out of both solidarity and self-preservation.

The US did not directly jump into the pit but had one of its legs tethered by a chain thrown into the pit before Ukraine’s leap, making it difficult to leave. Moreover, Ukraine’s abundant resources remain a strong temptation for the US, which is unwilling to let Russia benefit. With Russia still in the pit pummeling Ukraine, the US can only watch from the "edge of the pit." Jumping in would risk severe injury if Russia were to retaliate fiercely. The US occasionally throws bricks into the pit or uses underhanded tactics to keep Russia off balance. In short, Russia’s situation is far from comfortable, as it must guard against Ukrainian counterattacks while fending off US covert actions. However, the US is also in a predicament: while it could free its leg from the chain, doing so would leave its "ally" Ukraine to be beaten to death in the pit, creating a dilemma of choice.

The EU and NATO, the US’s "allies," numbering in the dozens, have gathered at the "edge of the pit." In response to Ukraine’s cries for help, they have grabbed the life-saving rope thrown up from the pit, but none dare to jump in and confront Russia directly. Instead, they loudly condemn Russia while cheering Ukraine on. This group of timid actors is merely making noise, occasionally launching sneak attacks on Russia but failing to pull Ukraine out of the pit. Moreover, Russia’s unpredictable temper makes it hesitant to confront the US directly for fear of mutual destruction, but it has no qualms about taking on the EU and NATO. A mere glare from Russia is enough to make the EU retreat. As time passes, Ukraine’s situation grows increasingly dire. Gradually, the EU and NATO have grown impatient and restless. They are now baring their teeth at Russia, rolling up their sleeves and preparing for action. This explains why the EU recently announced plans to form a "European Army" and even hinted at the possibility of direct fire with Russia. Will the EU and NATO actively jumped into the pit? Most likely not.