房價(jià)拐點(diǎn)？

注：本文原發(fā)于跨資產(chǎn)星球北京時(shí)間4月15日的內(nèi)容。本文僅摘取第三部分「房價(jià)拐點(diǎn)」，完整版可在文末獲取。

如果你有在港龍持續(xù)關(guān)注相對(duì)面板，你應(yīng)該可以發(fā)現(xiàn)地產(chǎn)代理籃子在整個(gè)A港的面板里轉(zhuǎn)為 improving 已經(jīng) 12 bars，對(duì)應(yīng)的部分領(lǐng)頭羊在絕對(duì)趨勢面板也走出上行：

If you have been tracking the relative panel continuously in Honglong, you should have noticed that the property-proxy basket inside the broader A/H panel has been in improving status for 12 bars, and some of the leaders have also started to move up on the absolute-trend panel:

圖：相對(duì)面板（截至 260415）https://t.zsxq.com/NIGzs

上漲背后主要由二手成交量的走強(qiáng)驅(qū)動(dòng)。不愿意聊的原因是在我們自己的視角里，其仍然只能視作短期的交易性反彈，從更完整的基本面框架來看，目前的確還處在局部改善低點(diǎn)，無法證明地產(chǎn)已經(jīng)進(jìn)入趨勢性拐點(diǎn)。

The rise has mainly been driven by stronger secondary-home transaction volumes. The reason I have not been eager to discuss it is that from our own perspective, this can still only be treated as a short-term trading rebound. Within a more complete fundamental framework, we are indeed still at a locally improved low point, but that is not enough to prove that property has entered a genuine trend inflection.

圖：Real-Time Secondary Sales Volume Y/Y Growth (April Month-to-Date)

根據(jù) JPM 的冰山指數(shù)，中國重點(diǎn)城市的 4 月月內(nèi)實(shí)時(shí)二手成交同比增長 36%，與此同時(shí)，官方網(wǎng)簽數(shù)據(jù)也顯示重點(diǎn)城市成交注冊(cè)節(jié)奏不錯(cuò)，尤其是上海，但更重要的，是市場對(duì)4月末局會(huì)議政策預(yù)期的提前博弈。

According to JPM's iceberg index, real-time secondary-home transactions in China's major cities are up 36% year on year so far in April. At the same time, official registration data also show a decent transaction-registration rhythm in major cities, especially Shanghai. More importantly, though, the market is front-running policy expectations for the late-April Politburo meeting.

圖：地產(chǎn) ETF 南方（日線圖，截至 260415）

這種政策博弈不是不能做，我們也做過。老朋友們應(yīng)該知道我們24年年中的那一輪地產(chǎn)押注，當(dāng)時(shí)的理由同樣不是基本面轉(zhuǎn)好，而是市場的價(jià)格已經(jīng)到了一個(gè)不得不干涉的地步...還是今天文章第一部分講到的，行動(dòng)上的不得不和邏輯上的應(yīng)該是是兩碼事，對(duì)于博弈，我們只做前者，不做后者。

This kind of policy front-running is not untradeable; we have traded it before. Long-time readers should remember our property bet in mid-2024. The logic then was likewise not that fundamentals had improved, but that prices had already reached a point where intervention had become unavoidable. This goes back to the distinction from the first part of today's piece: what is unavoidable in action and what merely seems logical are not the same thing. In these tactical trades, we only do the former, never the latter.

今天的情況之所以不同，是因?yàn)樵跊Q策視角下，決策層進(jìn)一步推出真正意義上的政策大拐彎是一個(gè)不太可能的情況，尤其是在實(shí)時(shí)數(shù)據(jù)出現(xiàn)見底的情況下，有形的手更加難以出現(xiàn)。

What makes today's situation different is that from the policy-maker's perspective, a truly major policy pivot is not very likely, especially when real-time data are already showing signs of stabilization. In that setting, the visible hand becomes even less likely to appear.

圖：此前的數(shù)次會(huì)議前交易性反彈，大部分投機(jī)資金在博弈的是即將來臨的會(huì)議

同時(shí)，當(dāng)前的市場定價(jià)區(qū)域其實(shí)已經(jīng)說不上底部，如果只是單純對(duì)基本面數(shù)據(jù)交易，可以看得到的上限，也就只是上圖的黃線附近，這是一個(gè)看得見頂?shù)氖虑椋?/strong>換句話說，對(duì)大部分資金（至少對(duì)我們）來說，都算不上是個(gè)很好的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)回報(bào)擊球區(qū)域。

At the same time, the market's current pricing zone can no longer be described as a true bottom. If one is trading purely off fundamental data, the visible upside may only extend to roughly the yellow line in the chart above. In other words, the top is visible. Put differently, for most capital, and certainly for us, this is not a particularly attractive risk-reward hitting zone.

進(jìn)一步講，什么是真正的基本面轉(zhuǎn)好？相互驗(yàn)證。量、價(jià)、庫存三要素的相互驗(yàn)證，才最為重要，單一成交量是難以支撐大周期的轉(zhuǎn)折的。就這個(gè)更完整的框架而言，價(jià)格仍然偏弱，一線城市二手掛牌價(jià)指數(shù)繼續(xù)下行，庫存去化也并不超乎預(yù)期（截至目前，一手庫存去化周期仍在 24 個(gè)月左右，二手庫存去化周期也高達(dá) 18 個(gè)月）...

Going one step further, what counts as a real improvement in fundamentals? Cross-validation. The mutual confirmation of volume, price, and inventory is what matters most. Transaction volume on its own is not enough to support a major-cycle turn. In that fuller framework, prices are still weak, asking-price indices for second-hand homes in top-tier cities continue to decline, and inventory digestion is not outperforming expectations either. As of now, first-hand inventory still has a digestion cycle of around 24 months, and second-hand inventory remains as high as 18 months...

這是我不愿意過早喊反轉(zhuǎn)的重要原因。

That is the main reason I am unwilling to call a reversal too early.

量價(jià)量價(jià)，我更關(guān)注價(jià)格本身，因?yàn)榱吭谝欢ǔ潭壬喜]有很高的決策價(jià)值。

Volume and price, volume and price. I care more about price itself, because volume does not have that much decision value to me in many cases.

圖：量好轉(zhuǎn)不等于價(jià)已經(jīng)見底，房價(jià)拐點(diǎn)尚未成立，掛牌價(jià)領(lǐng)先指標(biāo)仍在走弱

圖：價(jià)格拐點(diǎn)并未出現(xiàn)，這不是相互驗(yàn)證的真正底部

圖：華潤置地（周線圖，截至 260415）

圖：華潤萬象生活（周線圖，截至 260415）

完整內(nèi)容訂閱鏈接：https://t.zsxq.com/i90xY

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