美伊談判可能無法達成永久性的大型和平協議.. 260411

注：本文截取自Sean原發于北京時間4月10日晚的X推文及星球內容，部分內容已刪減，更多內容可在文末獲取。

The U.S. and Iran are now negotiating the negotiations as the world watches for a resolution this weekend. I do not think the U.S. and Iran can reach a permanent peace agreement, and the market is underpricing the repercussions.

美國和伊朗目前正在就談判本身進行交涉，全世界都在關注本周末能否達成決議。我認為美國和伊朗無法達成永久性的大型和平協議，而市場目前對由此產生的連鎖反應定價不足。

On Trump's side, reopening the Strait of Hormuz is the top priority, even more urgent in the short term than making sure Iran does not get nukes. But as long as the current Iranian government remains in place, that is not possible. This is not about insurers refusing to insure tankers or navies lacking the capacity to escort them. It is about shipping companies knowing they could lose the ship if they sail, while barrels sitting idle on ships in the Gulf could still earn decent money. As long as the current Iranian leadership remains, the threat remains, and normal shipping will not resume the way the U.S. wants.

就特朗普而言，重新開放霍爾木茲海峽是當務之急，短期來看，這甚至比確保伊朗不獲取核武器更為迫切。但只要現任伊朗政府繼續掌權，這就無法實現。這不僅僅是因為保險公司拒絕為油輪承保，或是海軍缺乏護航能力。關鍵在于，航運公司深知一旦開航就有可能損失船只，而停泊在海灣地區的閑置油輪依然能夠賺取可觀的利潤。只要現今的伊朗領導層依然在位，威脅就始終存在，正常的航運也無法按照美國所期望的方式恢復。

On Iran's side, the past 36 years of the regime have been built on portraying the U.S. as the enemy, not too dissimilar to North Korea. Now they control the Strait and can charge tolls to offset some of the pain the West has imposed on them through decades of sanctions. It is in both the Iranian government's and the Iranian people's interest to keep the Strait in their hands. It is a better weapon than nukes because tanker passage can be traded for diplomatic gains, restored relations, and the removal of decades-long sanctions. Oil is still the single most wanted commodity in the world, and not many countries produce more than they consume.

就伊朗而言，過去36年來，該政權的根基一直建立在將美國描繪成敵人的基礎之上，這與朝鮮的情況頗為相似。如今他們控制了海峽，并可通過收取通行費來抵消西方數十年來實施制裁所造成的部分創傷。將海峽控制權掌握在自己手中，符合伊朗政府及伊朗人民的雙重利益。這是一個比核武器更好的籌碼，因為油輪的通行權可以被用來交換外交利益、恢復雙邊關系以及解除長達數十年的制裁。石油依然是全球最受追捧的單一商品，且產大于銷的國家屈指可數。

That is why I think the U.S. has already lost this war. Iran can choke the U.S. stock market, Treasury yields, inflation, and Trump's approval ratings without even playing all of its cards: several Iran-backed groups have either held back or entered only in a limited way so far. These are the only four things Trump truly cares about. If he keeps fighting Iran, he will lose control of all four. And lucky for Iran, all four are heavily influenced by oil prices. That is why Trump is so desperate to pull out. He will keep portraying this as a huge win even though the U.S. has in fact lost the war.

這就是為什么我認為美國已經輸掉了這場戰爭。伊朗甚至不需要打出所有底牌，就能扼住美國股市、美債收益率、通脹以及特朗普支持率的咽喉：迄今為止，幾個受伊朗支持的組織要么按兵不動，要么只是進行了有限的介入。這四點正是特朗普真正關心的全部。如果他繼續與伊朗交戰，他將失去對這四者的控制。而對伊朗有利的是，這四者都深受油價影響。這就是特朗普如此迫切想要抽身的原因。他會繼續將此粉飾為一場巨大勝利，盡管事實上美國已經輸掉了這場戰爭。

I see Trump with only two options.

我認為特朗普目前只有兩個選擇。

1. Leave and declare victory.

撤退并宣布勝利。

He can try to tweet the market higher while Iran continues to hold de facto control of the Strait. Trump may feel pressured to go this route as the midterms approach. This would create short-term upside risk for equities, and we would likely see a sharp drop in crude futures as the market reprices stabilization. But by doing so, the U.S. hands Iran the button to push inflation higher whenever it wants. It also tells the world that the U.S. picked a fight with a seemingly much weaker opponent and lost. The U.S. has already lost many allies over the past year because of tariffs alone, and NATO countries have shown little willingness to help Trump in this war. This path means short-term gain and long-term pain. The dollar gets sold, Treasuries get sold, yields spike, and confidence in U.S. power erodes further.

他可以試圖通過發推特推高市場，同時任由伊朗繼續保持對海峽的實質性控制。隨著中期選舉臨近，特朗普可能會感到有壓力要走這條路。這將為股市創造短期的上行風險，并且隨著市場對局勢企穩進行重新定價，我們可能會看到原油期貨急劇下跌。但這樣做的話，美國等于把隨時推高通脹的按鈕交給了伊朗。這也向世界宣告，美國挑起了一場與一個看似弱小得多的對手的戰爭，并最終落敗。過去一年里，單是關稅問題就已經讓美國失去了許多盟友，而北約國家也幾乎沒有表現出在這場戰爭中協助特朗普的意愿。這條路徑意味著短期利益與長期痛苦。美元將被拋售，美債將被拋售，收益率將飆升，而外界對美國實力的信心將進一步被侵蝕。

2.Permanently remove the threat.

永久性消除威脅。

That means a ground invasion, a bloodbath, and the removal and replacement of the Iranian leadership. If Trump manages to do this successfully, he saves his presidency and extends the life of U.S. power by reinforcing the idea that America is still militarily formidable. Confidence returns, crude falls, inflation eases, bonds rally, and equities recover.

這意味著地面入侵、一場血戰，以及推翻并替換伊朗領導層。如果特朗普能成功做到這一點，他就能挽救他的總統任期，并通過強化“美國在軍事上依然強大”的觀念來延續美國霸權的壽命。信心將回歸，原油下跌，通脹緩解，債券反彈，股市復蘇。

But if the U.S. invades and fails to accomplish its goal quickly, the consequences will be devastating. Oil will make new highs, inflation will make new highs, bonds will get crushed, and global risk assets will reprice violently lower. The world could become chaotic within one or two months.

但如果美國發動入侵卻未能迅速實現目標，其后果將是毀滅性的。油價將創下新高，通脹將創下新高，債券將遭到無情拋售，全球風險資產將慘烈地向下重估。世界可能會在一兩個月內陷入混亂。

Given all this, I think the U.S. will invade Iran, but the invasion will likely turn into a very long war. My base case is that this conflict is far from over, and that the market is still underestimating how hard it will be to get from a temporary ceasefire to a durable settlement. I therefore continue to think crude can move back higher, and that the broader macro path remains much more fragile than the current relief rally implies. I think this rally provides a very attractive setup for shorting equities. The upside is limited because the market has priced in far more peace than war, while the downside risk is even bigger than Trump’s lies. I could be very wrong, but the risk-reward is asymmetric, and it would be a shame not to take this trade.

鑒于上述所有因素，我認為美國會入侵伊朗，但這場入侵很可能演變成一場曠日持久的戰爭。我的基準情形是，這場沖突遠未結束，而市場依然低估了從臨時停火走向持久解決方案的難度。因此，我繼續認為原油價格將重拾漲勢，且更廣泛的宏觀路徑依然比當前釋然性反彈所反映的要脆弱得多。我認為這輪反彈為做空股市提供了一個極具吸引力的入場時機。其上行空間有限，因為市場對“和平”的定價已遠超對“戰爭”的定價，而下行風險甚至比特朗普的謊言還要大。我可能會大錯特錯，但這里的風險收益比是不對稱的，如果錯過這筆交易，那將是非常遺憾的。

另外補充兩則來自深度星球的問答：

1. Q: I have followed you for a long time and understand you are mostly a macro-based trader. So I want to know how you see current market and what strategy at high level you plan to trade. Have you been through a period like this? The market basically has become ignorant to all bad news in my opinion. Vix has dropped to the pre-war level and oil still below 100 today. It's hard to believe if there is no some kind of institutional market manipulation.

我關注您很久了，也知道您主要是一位宏觀交易員。所以我想請教您如何看待當前市場，以及在頂層策略上您計劃如何布局？您經歷過類似當前這樣的時期嗎？在我看來，市場目前基本上對所有利空消息都已經完全鈍化。Vix已經回落至戰前水平，而今天油價依然徘徊在100美元下方。很難讓人相信這背后沒有某種機構級別的市場操縱行為。

Sean:If you mean volatile markets, yes, I've been through countless ones. If you mean constant tweet bombs lifting the market every 15 minutes,no,this is a first for everyone.The market learned Trump's tactics last year: maximum pressure before negotiations to extract as much as possible, and almost every time,he got a deal.But I doubt that is the case this time. The number of troops deployed to the Middle East is still increasing. I don't think he is bringing that many Marines just to accept a truce. I could be wrong, but if I'm right, all the gains from the last two weeks could be wiped out in two days.

如果你指的是高波動的市場，是的，我經歷過無數次。但如果你指的是每隔15分鐘就有連番的“推特轟炸”來拉升市場，沒有，這對所有人來說都是頭一遭。市場在去年就已經摸透了特朗普的套路：在談判前進行極限施壓以攫取最大籌碼，而且幾乎每一次他都能如愿達成協議。但我懷疑這次的情況并非如此。部署在中東的軍隊數量仍在不斷增加。我不認為他調動這么多海軍陸戰隊過去，僅僅是為了接受一紙停戰協議。我可能會看錯，但如果我對了，過去兩周積累的所有漲幅都可能在兩天內被悉數抹平。

2.Q: hi,Sean,regarding your ES short position, are you planning to hold it over the weekend or close it before today's market close?

嗨，Sean，關于你的 ES空頭倉位，你是打算持倉過周末，還是在今天收盤前平倉？

Sean:Depending on the tape,I may add NQ shorts or partically close the ES short before the weekend. Markets are volatile,and risk management is paramount.It's okay to sit on the sidelines until things becomes clearer. That is ,in my view, holding all cash is perfectly fine. For those who are in the trade,a smaller position size will be easier to manage in this environment.

這要取決于盤面表現，我可能會在周末前加倉做空 NQ，或者部分平倉 ES 的空頭。目前市場波動劇烈，風險管理至關重要。在局勢明朗之前，選擇退居場外觀望是完全沒問題的。也就是說，在我看來，全倉持有現金是非常好的選擇。對于已經在場內交易的人來說，在這種市場環境下，保持較小的倉位規模會更容易管理。

Sean' take:https://t.zsxq.com/aUUD2

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