期刊The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review 2025年第2期目錄及摘要｜保險學術前沿

聲明：本系列文章基于原期刊目錄和摘要內容整理而得，僅限于讀者交流學習。如有侵權，請聯系刪除。

期刊介紹：

The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review（《日內瓦風險與保險評論》，簡稱GRIR）是由日內瓦協會（The Geneva Association）出版的學術期刊，同時也是歐洲風險與保險經濟學家協會（European Group of Risk and Insurance Economists）的官方期刊。GRIR的研究范圍廣泛，包括保險產品和市場的經濟學、不確定性下的決策理論、個人、公司和社會的風險分擔或風險緩解機制。特別關注與風險分擔和緩解機制相關的市場失靈問題，例如由信息摩擦和激勵問題引起的市場失靈，以及政府在通過監管或社會保險提供風險管理方面的作用。期刊的出版周期為每年兩期，分別在3月和9月發布。

本期看點：

●現有個體的不確定性偏好測度的預測力有限。不確定性及其影響是經濟政策制定的關鍵考量。

●基于結構模型估計表明，健康保險雖能通過提升醫療支出對壽命產生積極影響，但該影響程度在統計上并不顯著。

●基于德國私人健康保險市場的分析，盡管傭金上限政策確實降低了支付給中介的傭金水平，有效抑制了替代性保險市場的保單置換現象，但卻未能顯著降低健康保險公司的總獲客成本，保險公司仍可輕易通過其他渠道規避監管約束。

●通過考慮個體預防措施相互作用的模型，研究發現，預防措施可能呈現供給不足或過度供給的狀態。應用于COVID-19感染風險分析，論證了政策干預（如強制佩戴口罩）的必要性。

●健康對自我防護的影響尤其取決于個體屬于消費健康關聯偏好型還是關聯厭惡型，這一關鍵發現揭示了健康風險決策中時間維度與偏好結構的交互機制。

※ 本期目錄

●Measuring uncertainty preferences: what we know and what we need

●Does health insurance extend life expectancy? Evidence from a structural estimation

●Lowering acquisition costs with a commission cap? Evidence from the German private health insurance market

●Interaction in prevention: a general theory and an application to COVID-19 pandemic

●Self-protection against a health risk and saving: an analysis of income and health effects

Measuring uncertainty preferences: what we know and what we need

不確定性偏好的測度：已知與待解

作者

Martin G. Kocher （維也納大學）

摘要：We often want to predict individual behavior under uncertainty in relevant decision-making settings based on the elicitation of individual uncertainty attitudes. This paper surveys different approaches to measure uncertainty preferences and studies that correlate measured preferences with decision-making behavior in different domains such as finance or insurance. We argue that the predictive power of elicited preferences in many studies is limited and suggest several potential ways forward for future research.

我們常常希望通過測度個體的不確定性態度，來預測其在相關決策情境中面對不確定性時的個體行為。本文系統梳理了測量不確定性偏好的不同方法，并綜述了將所測偏好與金融、保險等不同領域決策行為相關聯的研究。我們認為，現有許多研究中偏好測度的預測力有限，并據此為未來研究提出了若干潛在的推進方向。

文中要點：首先，金融監管與消費者保護要求對客戶的不確定性態度進行精準測度。行為經濟學可提供比當前實踐應用更為豐富的方法論與概念框架，但尚未得到充分運用。其次，不確定性是經濟活動的核心要素，然而在現實經濟狀況的預測與評估中，這一要素至今仍未得到充分體現。第三，不確定性及其影響是經濟政策制定的關鍵考量。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s10713-025-00110-6

Does health insurance extend life expectancy? Evidence from a structural estimation

健康保險能否延長預期壽命？基于結構模型估計的實證證據

作者

Pu Liao（中央財經大學），Jinhao Liu （中央財經大學）

摘要：We apply the simulated method of moments to a lifecycle model to infer the impact of health insurance on life expectancy. The model features endogenous health risks, which are determined jointly by the natural law and one’s own decisions of medical care expenditures. Individual’s optimal decisions of consumption, saving, and medical care expenditure are solved, and life expectancies are calculated in the scenarios with and without health insurance. The comparison result shows that health insurance has a positive impact on life expectancy through its positive impact on medical care expenditures, but this impact is not quantitatively significant.

本研究采用模擬矩方法分析生命周期模型，用來推斷健康保險對預期壽命的影響。該模型包含內生健康風險設定，其風險水平由自然生理規律與個人醫療支出決策共同決定。通過求解個體在消費、儲蓄及醫療支出的最優決策，我們分別計算了有無健康保險兩種情景下的預期壽命。對比結果顯示：健康保險雖能通過提升醫療支出對壽命產生積極影響，但該影響程度在統計上并不顯著。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s10713-023-00089-y

Lowering acquisition costs with a commission cap? Evidence from the German private health insurance market

降低獲客成本：傭金上限政策的效果評估——來自德國私人健康保險市場的證據

作者

Kylie A. Braegelmann（霍恩海姆大學），J?rg Schiller（霍恩海姆大學）

摘要：When consumers are neither particularly financially literate nor price sensitive, insurers have a strong incentive to pay high commissions to intermediaries for profitable new business. As a part of cost reduction regulation in the German private substitutive health insurance market, a commission cap and a minimum cancelation liability period for insurance intermediaries were introduced in 2012. Despite the fact that the commission cap lowered commissions paid to intermediaries, we provide evidence that the reform was only partly effective, as it led to a decrease in reshuffling of new business in the substitutive market, but did not significantly reduce total acquisition costs of health insurers. Our findings confirm that cost regulation is tricky and can be easily circumvented by insurers, as commission payments are only a part of total acquisition costs.

當消費者既不具備較高的金融素養又對價格不敏感時，保險公司有強烈動機通過支付高額傭金來激勵中介機構獲取盈利性新業務。作為德國替代性私人健康保險市場成本管控改革的一部分，監管機構于2012年推出了保險中介傭金上限與最低解約責任期的雙重規定。實證研究表明：盡管傭金上限政策確實降低了支付給中介的傭金水平，但改革僅取得部分成效——雖然有效抑制了替代性保險市場的保單置換現象，卻未能顯著降低健康保險公司的總獲客成本。這一發現印證了成本監管的復雜性：由于傭金支出僅構成總獲客成本的一部分，保險公司仍可輕易通過其他渠道規避監管約束。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s10713-023-00091-4

Interaction in prevention: a general theory and an application to COVID-19 pandemic

預防措施中的相互作用：一個通用理論及其在COVID-19大防控中的應用

作者

Pietro Battiston（比薩大學），Mario Menegatti（比薩大學）

摘要：We study a model introducing interactions in agents’ prevention effort, including both the case where agents’ efforts reinforce each others and the case where they are conflicting. We characterize best response functions, distinguishing the case of strategic complementarity and the case of strategic substitutability, and determine the features of Nash equilibria in both cases. We find conditions for under- and over-provision of prevention compared to its socially optimal level. Finally, we specialize our model to describe the risk of COVID-19 infection. We show the features of contagion are consistent with the existence of asymmetric equilibria and we provide arguments in favor of policy interventions, such as making face masks mandatory, despite the possibility that they reduce some agents’ effort.

本研究構建了一個考慮個體預防措施相互作用的模型，其中既包含預防努力相互強化的情形，也包含相互沖突的情形。我們通過刻畫最佳反應函數，區分了策略互補性與策略替代性兩種情形，并確定了兩種情況下納什均衡的特征。研究發現，與社會最優水平相比，預防措施可能呈現供給不足或過度供給的狀態。最后，我們將模型應用于COVID-19感染風險分析，證明病毒傳播特性與不對稱均衡的存在具有一致性，并論證了政策干預（如強制佩戴口罩）的必要性——盡管這些措施可能會降低部分個體的防護努力，但整體上仍具有積極意義。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s10713-023-00092-3

Self-protection against a health risk and saving: an analysis of income and health effects

防范健康風險與儲蓄行為：一項關于收入與健康效應的綜合分析

作者

Jimin Hong（韓國崇實大學），Kyungsun Kim（韓國保險研究院）

摘要：This study considers both an atemporal (one period) and an intertemporal (two period, with savings) model to examine the effects of income and health on self-protection. We identify clear conditions on risk preferences which imply the normality (or inferiority) of self-protection; these conditions are essentially the same in both the atemporal and intertemporal models. The effects of health on self-protection are more complicated: dynamic versus static matters, and the effects depend, in particular, on whether the individual is correlation (between health and consumption) loving or correlation averse.

本研究通過構建單期靜態與跨期動態（含儲蓄的兩期）模型，系統考察收入與健康水平對自我防護行為的影響。我們明確了導致自我防護行為呈現正常品（或低檔品）特征的風險偏好條件，并證明這些條件在靜態與跨期模型中具有一致性。健康對自我防護的影響更為復雜：動態與靜態情境下結論各異，尤其取決于個體屬于消費健康關聯偏好型還是關聯厭惡型，這一關鍵發現揭示了健康風險決策中時間維度與偏好結構的交互機制。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s10713-023-00090-5

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