19年29倍——伊恩·拉什布魯克留給我們的10條最佳投資建議！

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風險提示：本文所提到的觀點僅代表個人的意見，所涉及標的不作推薦，據此買賣，風險自負。

作者：煉金女王

來源：雪球

昨天在看一本老書《至高無上》，作者分享了8位英國頂尖投資經理，除了安東尼波頓，還有祖魯法則的吉姆斯萊特和新興市場投資大佬莫比爾斯。其中，有一位叫伊恩?拉什布魯克，說實話，我是第一次聽說這個名字，查詢之后，先是被他的投資收益折服，伊恩在執掌PAT期間，將基金規模1990年的550萬英鎊（其中大部分為其個人資金），增長至2008年的1.6億英鎊，近20年實現29倍規模增長，且投資收益持續大幅跑贏英國大盤指數；但更讓我扼腕嘆息的是，他于2008年去世，年僅68歲，在投資的世界，活得久才是關鍵。

伊恩的投資策略是基于不虧錢為基礎設計的，重視倉位管理，市場高估時會提升現金的比例。并且善于用定量分析來做宏觀擇時和股票排除。更為觸動我，以及和我想法不謀而合的就是，伊恩的靈活性。他可以投資大盤股，也可以投資小盤股，可以投資英國市場，也會涉足全球市場，哪里機會大就去哪里，而不是將自己桎梏在一個圈子里。

最早以前我會狹隘的理解3P投資，就是簡單的低市盈率，低市凈率，股價創新低，但隨著與大師為伍，投資實踐，我漸漸地理解，投資其實就是遵循常識，我們要買能真正創造價值，具備成長潛力，擁有一定壟斷能力、持續產生自由現金流，負債可控，管理層好、價格美麗（避免價值陷阱）的公司。（我持倉中有不少需要都賣掉！）

伊恩，并未出版過任何書籍，但是在2001年8月PAT 基金的季度通訊中，總結了他40年投資生涯的十條投資法則，在這里將分享給大家。

《Ten Rules for Investment – the best investment advice you will ever get》 投資十條法則——你能得到的最佳投資建議 ——精煉版

1、看每股增長，不看規模擴張，拒絕并購式虛胖。

2、極度厭惡高負債，優先股東利益，遠離杠桿陷阱。

3、用總資本回報率（ROCE）判斷盈利，不被負債拉高的ROE欺騙。

4、不重復研究，重點找市場估值里的邏輯錯誤。

5、警惕 “看起來極度便宜” 的標的，便宜多事出有因。

6、只投你認可、愿意追隨其管理層的公司。

7、不懂不做，不投看不懂業務與商業模式的企業。

8、寧缺毋濫，一年只抓少數真正優質機會，耐心等待。

9、低換手、少交易，用 “不折騰” 保護收益。

10、保持獨立客觀，不被人情交易綁架決策。

——原文版：

1. Only invest in companies with growth in revenues per share and avoid companies that grow by acquisition.

Mere grows in size is of no benefit to shareholders. The value of the shares is determined not by the size of the company as a whole but by the revenues, earnings and dividends per share, and their rate of growth.

1. 只投資于每股收入增長的公司，避開那些靠收購擴張的企業。

單純的企業規模擴張對股東并無益處。股票的價值不取決于公司的整體規模，而取決于每股收入、每股收益和每股股息及其增長率。

2. Avoid highly geared companies like the plague – debt is crippling to management flexibility and corporate growth.

Even though this may sound counterintuitive as equity investors are always inclined to think that gearing is good. Yet the financial graveyard is littered with companies which borrowed too much and came unstuck.

Running a highly geared company also means that the interests of the shareholders is not first in the minds of management but that creditors are. That is never a good situation..

2. 像避開瘟疫一樣遠離高杠桿公司——債務會嚴重束縛管理層的靈活性，阻礙企業增長。

盡管這聽起來可能有些反直覺，因為股票投資者總是傾向于認為杠桿是好事。然而，金融業的墳墓里，遍地是因借貸過多而崩塌的公司。

經營一家高杠桿公司還意味著，管理層優先考慮的不是股東利益，而是債權人。這絕不是什么好局面。

3. Only invest in companies with an attractive return on total capital employed as opposed to simple and high ROE achieved through debt.

Calculating the return on equity while ignoring the rest of capital employed is a grave mistake. Equity, because of write-offs can also be negative. This would mean that even a small profit will give an infinite ROE.

A better measure of measuring returns is to calculate the return on total capital employed which includes debt, and if you like, deferred tax liabilities which is really an interest free loan from the government.

Return on capital employed is calculated by dividing net profit (before or after tax whatever you prefer) by total equity plus total debt (plus deferred tax liabilities)

3. 只投資于投入總資本回報率誘人的公司，而不是那些通過債務實現高凈資產收益率的公司。

計算凈資產收益率而忽視其他投入資本，是一個嚴重錯誤。由于資產核銷，凈資產也可能是負數。這意味著即使微薄的利潤也會產生無窮大的凈資產收益率。

更好的衡量方法是計算投入總資本回報率，它包括債務，如果你愿意的話，還可以包括遞延所得稅負債——這實際上是政府提供的一筆無息貸款。

投入資本回報率（ROCE）的計算方法是：凈利潤（稅前或稅后均可）÷（總權益 + 總負債 ），總負債包括 遞延所得稅負債。

另外，重點關注兩個指標，《至高無上》有提到，拉什布魯克的投資智慧在于：無論通脹高低，企業的本質不會變——它必須有效地將投入轉化為產出和利潤。

4. The market does 95% of the work for you – your problem is not to duplicate research but to identify errors of logic in company evaluations.

Ian gives an example of banks being the dogs of the stock market in the 1970s and 1980s. Periods of high inflation.

Yet over the five-year period until 2001 banks make shareholders millions. Not because major broking analysts were not analyzing them properly. It was because most investors had failed to spot how attractive banks had become in the new low inflation environment.

Ian mentions that he was never in favor of and always scepitical of the idea of new macroeconomic paradigms. He however mentioned that new paradigms for individual companies and sectors really can emerge. Helping to spot them is an important part of a fund manager’s job.

4. 市場已經為你完成了95%的工作——你的問題不是重復研究，而是找出公司估值中的邏輯錯誤。

伊恩舉例說明了銀行股在20世紀七八十年代（高通脹時期）曾是股市的棄兒。

然而，在截至2001年的五年里，銀行股為股東賺取了巨額利潤。這不是因為主流券商分析師沒有正確分析它們，而是因為大多數投資者未能發現，在新的低通脹環境下，銀行股已變得多么誘人。

伊恩提到，他從不贊成且始終對“新宏觀經濟范式”的觀點持懷疑態度。不過他指出，針對個別公司和行業的“新范式”確實可能出現。幫助發現這些變化，是基金經理工作的重要部分。

5. Against the market at any point in time, that which looks statistically cheap is probably dear and visa versa.

What Ian is saying is that there is usually a good reason for apparent valuation anomalies.

This can be summed up as generally speaking the market knows more than you do and there is usually a good reason for apparent anomalies, one market sector being remarkably inexpensive for example.

Be very careful before investing in such anomalies without doing thorough research.

5. 在任何時點上，與市場相比，那些統計上看起來很便宜的股票很可能其實是貴的，反之亦然。

伊恩的意思是，表面上的估值異常通常有其合理的解釋。

這可以概括為：總的來說，市場知道得比你多，表面上的異常——比如某個行業板塊異常便宜——通常有其充分理由。

在沒有進行深入研究之前，投資此類異常要格外謹慎。

6. Only invest in companies where you would be willing to work for the chief executive.

This can usually be determined to the answering of a few simple questions.

From the coverage in the media would you as a young person gladly follow such a person?

Can he articulate a sound strategy?

Does he have the charisma to give the company a sense of purpose and excitement?

6. 只投資那些你愿意為其首席執行官工作的公司。

這通常可以通過回答幾個簡單問題來判斷：

從媒體報道來看，如果你是個年輕人，你會樂意追隨這樣一個人嗎？

他能清晰闡述合理的戰略嗎？

他有魅力讓公司充滿使命感和激情嗎？

7. If you do not understand the product or service do not invest in the company.

The most striking example of this rule took place in the time of the South Sea bubble in 1720 when a company was successfully promoted as “for an undertaking which shall in due time be revealed”.

Compare that to the “clicks not profits” idea from the internet bubble and it just goes to show human nature does not change.

7. 如果你不理解產品或服務，就不要投資這家公司。

這條規則最突出的例子發生在1720年南海泡沫期間，當時有一家公司成功募集資金，宣傳語卻是“從事一項待時機成熟方予披露的事業”。

將其與互聯網泡沫時期的“點擊量，不盈利”理念相比較，只能說明人性從未改變。

8. Working full-time in investment you will probably only see two or three outstanding investment opportunities in a year – be prepared to wait for them.

Investing can sometimes be a lonely and boring pursuit as Warren Buffett has said many times.

Not being able to sit on their hands is probably the biggest problems fund managers have as they think they must show activity to justify their fees.

8. 即使全職從事投資，你一年可能也只能發現兩三個絕佳的投資機會——要耐心等待。

正如沃倫·巴菲特多次說過的，投資有時是一件孤獨而枯燥的事。

基金經理最大的問題可能就是管不住自己的手，因為他們覺得自己必須有所動作，才能證明收取管理費是合理的。

9. Minimise portfolio turnover.

That is best summarized by the quote “if there’s nothing worth doing it’s worth doing nothing”.

Portfolio turnover can be a substantial drag on your investment returns. Even with internet dealing decreasing transaction costs it still costs about 1% to get in and out of a position.

And with government looking to tax anything and everything this may go up even more.

9. 盡量減少投資組合的換手率。

這句話最好地概括了這一點：“如果沒有值得做的事，那就不做。”

投資組合換手率會嚴重拖累你的投資回報。即使互聯網交易降低了交易成本，進出一次頭寸仍需花費約1%的成本。

而且，隨著政府想方設法對一切征稅，這一成本可能還會上升。

10. Entertain your broker at your expense rather than his – this will improve his advice dramatically.

If you are entertained by your broker you often feel duty bound to pay for it by placing an order. But if you can afford your own lunches it’s better to keep your investment objectivity by entertaining your broker.

This way he will feel obligated to give you a few good ideas. Always a good position to be in and probably the best meal you ever paid for.

Like good advice on any matter a lot of the points mentioned above are simple common sense.

The only problem is common sense in not that common.

10. 由你做東請你的經紀人吃飯，而不是讓他請你——這會顯著改善他的建議質量。

如果你接受了經紀人的款待，你往往會覺得有義務下一個訂單來“回報”他。但如果你負擔得起自己的午餐，最好由你做東請經紀人，從而保持你的投資客觀性。

這樣，他會覺得有義務給你一些好點子。這始終是一個有利的位置，而且可能是你吃過的最值的一頓飯。

伊恩：就像任何領域的好建議一樣，上面提到的很多要點其實都是簡單的常識。唯一的問題是：常識這東西，并不那么常見。

雪球三分法是雪球基于“長期投資+資產配置”推出的基金配置理念，通過資產分散、市場分散、時機分散這三大分散進行基金長期投資，從而實現投資收益來源多元化和風險分散化。點擊下方圖片立即領取課程