梅里·馬達(dá)沙希：極端天氣事件頻發(fā)，城市怎么辦？

IPP評(píng)論是國(guó)家高端智庫(kù)華南理工大學(xué)公共政策研究院（IPP）官方微信平臺(tái)。

導(dǎo)語(yǔ)：亞洲多地在11月下旬遭遇強(qiáng)風(fēng)暴與洪澇災(zāi)害，惡劣天氣已造成大量傷亡，并迫使大量民眾離開(kāi)家園。聯(lián)合國(guó)政府間氣候變化專門(mén)委員會(huì)（IPCC）的一份評(píng)估報(bào)告預(yù)測(cè)，隨著氣溫上升，南亞和東南亞將面臨更多強(qiáng)降雨，季風(fēng)地區(qū)發(fā)生洪水的頻率將“大幅增加”。

城市承載著大量人口，是洪澇、臺(tái)風(fēng)等極端天氣和氣候事件，以及糧食、能源系統(tǒng)紊亂的“前線陣地”。在這一現(xiàn)實(shí)背景下，城市亟需將“氣候韌性”內(nèi)化為空間設(shè)計(jì)、生態(tài)修復(fù)和治理結(jié)構(gòu)之中的系統(tǒng)能力。

10月27日，在2025年世界城市日城市可持續(xù)發(fā)展全球大會(huì)“綠色低碳與韌性城市”主題會(huì)議上，IPP榮譽(yù)教授、聯(lián)合國(guó)教科文組織國(guó)際創(chuàng)意和可持續(xù)發(fā)展中心（ICCSD）顧問(wèn)理事梅里·馬達(dá)沙希（Mehri Madarshahi）表示，氣候韌性不應(yīng)僅被理解為應(yīng)對(duì)沖擊的能力，而應(yīng)是一種將脆弱性轉(zhuǎn)化為“適應(yīng)性智慧”的進(jìn)化過(guò)程。她指出，面對(duì)氣候變化這一關(guān)鍵挑戰(zhàn)，單靠技術(shù)難以奏效，亟須推動(dòng)技術(shù)、生態(tài)與治理的協(xié)同融合，并將自然設(shè)計(jì)、社會(huì)公平與文化智慧納入下一代氣候解決方案之中。

IPP榮譽(yù)教授、聯(lián)合國(guó)教科文組織國(guó)際創(chuàng)意和可持續(xù)發(fā)展中心（ICCSD）顧問(wèn)理事梅里·馬達(dá)沙希（Mehri Madarshahi）在會(huì)上發(fā)言。

梅里·馬達(dá)沙希（Mehri Madarshahi）

華南理工大學(xué)公共政策研究院（IPP）榮譽(yù)教授、聯(lián)合國(guó)教科文組織國(guó)際創(chuàng)意和可持續(xù)發(fā)展中心（ICCSD）顧問(wèn)理事

Honorary Professorof The Institute of Public Policy (IPP) ,South China University of Technology (SCUT) ; Member of Advisory Board of UNESCO International Centre for Creative Economy and Sustainable Development（ICCSD）

正文

氣候韌性城市的未來(lái)——當(dāng)創(chuàng)新與生態(tài)相遇

The Future of Climate-Resilient Cities——Where Innovation Meets Ecology

科技創(chuàng)新與生態(tài)發(fā)展如何實(shí)現(xiàn)協(xié)同，是擺在全人類面前的共同課題。在快速城市化進(jìn)程中，真正的難題并不在于創(chuàng)新本身，而在于如何以更負(fù)責(zé)任的方式創(chuàng)新，使科技進(jìn)步與自然相互支撐，而不是彼此消耗。

At the intersection of our shared future lies the pursuit of scientific and technological innovation in harmony with ecological development. In an era of rapid urbanization, the central challenge before us is not innovation per se, but responsible innovation, ensuring that progress becomes an ally, rather than an adversary, of nature.

我們正身處一個(gè)具有決定意義的歷史時(shí)刻。氣候危機(jī)已經(jīng)從警示走向現(xiàn)實(shí)，成為全人類共同面對(duì)的緊急挑戰(zhàn)。這不僅需要國(guó)際社會(huì)的協(xié)同努力，更需要匯聚集體的智慧與創(chuàng)造力。頻繁發(fā)生的洪水、熱浪與野火不斷昭示：城市韌性的提升，不只是承受沖擊，更是一種主動(dòng)的、創(chuàng)造性的轉(zhuǎn)型行動(dòng)。

We are living at a decisive moment. The climate crisis has shifted from a distant warning to a planetary emergency, one that demands not only global cooperation, but collective ingenuity. Each flood, heatwave, and wildfire conveys the same imperative: resilience is not merely a matter of endurance; it is a creative and transformative act.

12月2日，斯里蘭卡尼亞姆甘多拉，迪特瓦氣旋過(guò)后，強(qiáng)降雨導(dǎo)致洪水泛濫，建筑物被淹沒(méi)，這是從空中拍攝的畫(huà)面。圖源：路透社

長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)，韌性被視為抵御沖擊、吸收風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的能力；但在氣候變化的背景下，韌性需要被重新理解——它不只是抵御沖擊，更是一種將脆弱性轉(zhuǎn)化為適應(yīng)性智慧的能力。

Long understood as the capacity to resist and absorb shocks, resilience in the context of climate change must now be redefined as something more profound, the conversion of vulnerability into adaptive intelligence.

我們常說(shuō)，未來(lái)將是城市的時(shí)代；但更深層的問(wèn)題在于，未來(lái)究竟取決于我們?cè)诙啻蟪潭壬献屪匀蝗谌氤鞘校约霸诙啻蟪潭壬献尅绊g性”保持人性的溫度。

We often say the future will be urban, but the deeper truth is this, the future will be determined by how urban we allow nature to be, and how humane we allow resilience to become.

縱觀歷史，城市始終映照著人類文明的本質(zhì)，承載著人類的雄心與理想。然而在今天，這面“城市之鏡”卻呈現(xiàn)出一個(gè)令人不安的悖論：那些原本旨在帶來(lái)穩(wěn)定的體系——基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行方式、生活方式，以及一切構(gòu)成人之為人的要素——正受到“不穩(wěn)定”本身的嚴(yán)峻考驗(yàn)。

Throughout history, cities have mirrored the essence of human civilizations, where our ambitions, anxieties, and aspirations converge. Yet today, our urban mirrors reveal a troubling paradox: the very systems designed for stability, our infrastructures, our economies, our ways of life and all other elements that make humanity human, are being tested by instability itself.

如今，全球一半以上的人口居住在城市，城市活動(dòng)貢獻(xiàn)了超過(guò)70%的溫室氣體排放。同時(shí)，城市也是氣候沖擊的最前沿，正直接承受極端高溫、洪澇災(zāi)害、海平面上升，以及水、糧食和能源系統(tǒng)紊亂所帶來(lái)的壓力，并由此引發(fā)森林火災(zāi)、人口遷移和貧困等一系列連鎖問(wèn)題。因此，城市生活已與氣候挑戰(zhàn)緊密交織，難以分割。

Urban areas now house more than half of the world’s population and generate over 70 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. They are also the frontlines of climate impacts, facing extreme heat, flooding, sea-level rise, and disruptions to water, food, energy systems, forest fires and migration and poverty. The urban experience is, therefore, has become inseparable from the climate challenge.

氣候變化已不再是一個(gè)單純的環(huán)境議題，而是對(duì)城市未來(lái)所進(jìn)行的一場(chǎng)最為復(fù)雜、也最為嚴(yán)苛的“壓力測(cè)試”。每一次極端氣候事件，都不僅是一場(chǎng)氣象災(zāi)害，更是對(duì)治理能力、公平正義以及社會(huì)文化的全面檢驗(yàn)。氣候變化也已成為二十一世紀(jì)城市生活的決定性背景。每一座城市，如今都站在脆弱性與機(jī)遇的交匯點(diǎn)上。

Climate change is no longer a purely environmental problem; it has become the most sophisticated stress test of our urban futures. Every extreme event is not just a meteorological incident, but it is a test of governance, equity, and culture. Climate change has become the defining condition of urban life in the twenty-first century. Every city now stands at the intersection of vulnerability and opportunity.

然而，復(fù)雜之中也蘊(yùn)含著新的可能。作為創(chuàng)造力與實(shí)驗(yàn)精神的引擎，城市同樣掌握著通往解決方案的關(guān)鍵。它們可以成為轉(zhuǎn)型的“實(shí)驗(yàn)室”，在其中探索以氣候敏感性為導(dǎo)向的空間規(guī)劃、以自然為基礎(chǔ)的設(shè)計(jì)理念，以及增強(qiáng)社會(huì)韌性的制度與實(shí)踐，從而重新塑造人與環(huán)境之間的關(guān)系。

Yet, within this complexity lies possibility. Cities, as engines of creativity and experimentation, also hold keys to solutions. They can serve as laboratories of transformation testing new forms of climate-sensitive planning, nature-based design, and social resilience that redefine the relationship between people and their environment.

通過(guò)綠色建筑、藍(lán)綠空間與高密度城市形態(tài)的融合，探索人與自然共生的城市發(fā)展路徑。圖源：作者供圖

韌性城市并不僅僅是在災(zāi)害中幸存下來(lái)，它們能夠?qū)W習(xí)、適應(yīng)，并在沖擊之后變得更加強(qiáng)大。這需要一種綜合性的路徑，將空間規(guī)劃、生態(tài)修復(fù)與包容性治理有機(jī)聯(lián)結(jié)起來(lái)。

Resilient cities do more than survive disasters: They learn, adapt, and emerge stronger.This requires an integrated approach linking spatial planning, ecological restoration, and inclusive governance.

當(dāng)下，我們已看到一系列突破性進(jìn)展：以生物基材料為代表的新型建筑技術(shù)、基于藻類的碳捕集方案、由人工智能驅(qū)動(dòng)的微電網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)，以及能夠充當(dāng)“碳匯”的建筑形態(tài)。同時(shí)，以自然為本的解決方案——如垂直森林、透水鋪裝和可吸收碳的建筑立面——正在把城市的物質(zhì)肌理轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)樯鷳B(tài)修復(fù)的積極參與者。

Today, we see breakthroughs in bio-based construction materials, algae-based carbon capture, AI-powered microgrids, and buildings that act as carbon sinks and we observe nature-based solutions, such as vertical forests, permeable pavements, and carbon-absorbing facades, that can transform the physical fabric of cities into active participants in ecological restoration.

當(dāng)技術(shù)與自然形成協(xié)同，城市轉(zhuǎn)型才真正具備可持續(xù)的可能。圖源：作者提供

在這一方面，全球已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了一些令人鼓舞的實(shí)踐案例，例如：哥本哈根的“暴雨廊道”（cloudburst boulevards,）通過(guò)專門(mén)設(shè)計(jì)的城市通道，將洪水安全、有序地引導(dǎo)穿行于城市空間之中。

In this regard, encouraging examples are that of, Copenhagen’s cloudburst boulevards, that are designed to channel floodwaters safely through urban spaces.

上海的“海綿城市”建設(shè)則致力于把超大城市轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橐粋€(gè)能夠吸納、蓄存并再利用雨水的“生命系統(tǒng)”。

Shanghai’s sponge city initiatives, to turn the metropolis into a living system that absorbs and reuses rainwater.

盧旺達(dá)首都基加利（Kigali）的綠色增長(zhǎng)戰(zhàn)略聚焦在低碳規(guī)劃的同時(shí)，提升社會(huì)包容性，實(shí)現(xiàn)環(huán)境目標(biāo)與社會(huì)發(fā)展并行推進(jìn)。

Kigali’s green growth strategies, in combining low-carbon planning with social inclusion.

哥倫比亞第二大城市麥德林（Medellín）的社會(huì)城市主義實(shí)踐曾經(jīng)主要用于交通出行的纜車(chē)系統(tǒng)，如今成為連接社區(qū)、重塑社會(huì)信心與希望的重要紐帶。

Medellín’s social urbanism, where cable cars once built for mobility now connect communities and foster hope.

新加坡的數(shù)據(jù)驅(qū)動(dòng)型降溫網(wǎng)絡(luò)。在這一體系中，先進(jìn)技術(shù)與城市歷史文化遺產(chǎn)實(shí)現(xiàn)了和諧共存。

Singapore’s data-driven cooling networks, where technology and heritage coexist harmoniously.

這些案例表明，韌性的產(chǎn)生，正是在技術(shù)與信任相互交融、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施與城市身份彼此塑造的時(shí)候，也是在自然、文化與知識(shí)融匯為一種具有前瞻性的生存戰(zhàn)略之際。因此，城市韌性并不只是“抵抗沖擊”的能力，而是一種重構(gòu)的過(guò)程。

These cases show that resilience begins where technology meets trust, where infrastructure meets identity, and where nature, culture, and knowledge converge into a visionary survival strategy. Urban resilience then, is not simply resistance. It is reconfiguration.

一座真正具備韌性的城市，能夠在沖擊之后實(shí)現(xiàn)理性而有序的自我重組：使工程體系與生態(tài)系統(tǒng)相協(xié)調(diào)，讓經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行與地球邊界相契合，并促使文化價(jià)值與行為方式的轉(zhuǎn)變彼此呼應(yīng)。這種重組，依賴于跨學(xué)科的智慧：能夠傾聽(tīng)生態(tài)的工程學(xué)、尊重地球邊界的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)，以及激發(fā)行為轉(zhuǎn)變的文化敘事。

A resilient city reorganizes itself intelligently after shocks, aligning engineering with ecology, economics with planetary boundaries, and culture with behavioral change.This reorganization requires cross-disciplinary intelligence: engineering that listens to ecology, economics that respects planetary boundaries, and cultural narratives that inspire behavioral change.

因此，城市規(guī)劃必須從事后規(guī)制走向前瞻預(yù)判，并清醒地認(rèn)識(shí)到：一座“智慧城市”或許在技術(shù)上足夠聰明，卻依然可能在結(jié)構(gòu)上極其脆弱。

Urban planning must, therefore, evolve from regulation to anticipation and assume that a smart city can besmartbut still profoundly fragile.

城市韌性需要在城市空間、信息系統(tǒng)、能源結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)布局、功能分區(qū)、綠色空間與公共交通之間進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)性、協(xié)同化的整體設(shè)計(jì)。圖源：嘉賓演講ppt

我們真正需要的，是“智慧而有遠(yuǎn)見(jiàn)的城市”——將計(jì)算智能與文化智慧相結(jié)合的城市。因?yàn)槿狈Π菪缘倪m應(yīng)注定難以奏效，而沒(méi)有同理心的技術(shù)只會(huì)制造疏離。在這樣的愿景之下，城市不應(yīng)被設(shè)計(jì)為凝固在時(shí)間中的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，而應(yīng)被視為具備進(jìn)化能力的“生命體”。

What we, therefore, need arewise cities:cities that combine computational intelligence with cultural wisdom, since adaptation without inclusion can fail, and technology without empathy alienates. In such a visionary approach, we must design cities not as infrastructures frozen in time but as living organisms capable of evolution.

同樣重要的是，氣候行動(dòng)不能忽視文化智慧。它不應(yīng)只是點(diǎn)綴，而應(yīng)成為理解社區(qū)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)認(rèn)知與變化態(tài)度的診斷工具。面向未來(lái)的氣候解決方案，必須將深度技術(shù)與深層人性相融合——因?yàn)闅夂騽?chuàng)新，既發(fā)生在代碼與碳排放層面，也根植于人的行為與信念之中。

Moreover, climate action plans must integrate cultural intelligence, not as aesthetic addition, but as a diagnostic tool to understand how communities perceive risk and change. The next generation of climate solutions must unite deep tech with deep humanity, for climate innovation which is, as much about behavior and belief as it is, about code and carbon.

為應(yīng)對(duì)這一挑戰(zhàn)，我們必須采用綜合性的規(guī)劃模式，將科學(xué)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與生態(tài)目標(biāo)直接聯(lián)結(jié)起來(lái)。

To meet this challenge, we must adopt integrated planning models that link scientific and technological innovation directly with ecological goals.

可持續(xù)智慧城市需要通過(guò)數(shù)字技術(shù)將治理、交通、能源、水資源、農(nóng)業(yè)、公共服務(wù)與居民生活等多個(gè)系統(tǒng)整合聯(lián)動(dòng)。圖源：嘉賓演講ppt

在人工智能、生物技術(shù)、材料科學(xué)和數(shù)字基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施等領(lǐng)域進(jìn)步的推動(dòng)下，綠色技術(shù)能夠?qū)ι鷳B(tài)系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行監(jiān)測(cè)、減少污染并優(yōu)化資源配置。歸根結(jié)底，具備氣候韌性的城市是實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)未來(lái)的重要基石。

Green technologies, powered by advances in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, materials science, and digital infrastructure, can monitor ecosystems, reduce pollution, and optimize resources. Ultimately, climate-resilient cities are the foundation of a sustainable future.

但我們也應(yīng)當(dāng)清醒地認(rèn)識(shí)到：盡管現(xiàn)代技術(shù)可以作為強(qiáng)有力的工具加以運(yùn)用，僅憑技術(shù)本身，并不足以完成城市的轉(zhuǎn)型。

We should remember,however, that although modern tecnologies could be employed as tools but technology alone will not transform our cities.

治理是關(guān)鍵所在。構(gòu)建城市韌性，需要形成新的城市治理與領(lǐng)導(dǎo)模式，將地方層面的行動(dòng)與《巴黎協(xié)定》以及可持續(xù)發(fā)展目標(biāo)等全球性框架有效銜接起來(lái)。聯(lián)合國(guó)可持續(xù)發(fā)展目標(biāo)（UNSDGs）所涵蓋的一系列應(yīng)對(duì)多重環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的政策取向，尤其是目標(biāo)11（建設(shè)包容、安全、有抵御災(zāi)害能力和可持續(xù)的到城市和人類住區(qū)）與目標(biāo)13（采取緊急行動(dòng)應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化及其影響），為通向可持續(xù)未來(lái)提供了一個(gè)重要的全球框架。

Governance is central. Building resilience requires new forms of urban leadership that connect local action to global frameworks such as the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals. Wide range of policies that respond to multiple environmental risks shows the UN Sustainable Development Goals (UNSDGs)—specifically Goal 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), and Goal 13 (Climate Action) could provide a global framework for a sustainable future.

聯(lián)合國(guó)17個(gè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展目標(biāo)。圖源：路透社

政府、公民社會(huì)、學(xué)術(shù)界與私營(yíng)部門(mén)之間的伙伴關(guān)系至關(guān)重要，唯有如此，才能確保氣候應(yīng)對(duì)措施既行之有效，又公平正義。

Partnerships among governments, civil society, academia, and the private sector are essential to ensure that climate responses are both effective and just.

韌性并非終點(diǎn)，而是一條持續(xù)前行的路徑——是在不斷變化的星球上，持續(xù)學(xué)習(xí)以不同方式生活的過(guò)程。這意味著，要將科學(xué)知識(shí)與城市治理和規(guī)劃有效對(duì)接，把全球性框架轉(zhuǎn)化為地方層面的行動(dòng)重點(diǎn)，并確保韌性戰(zhàn)略得到資金支持、持續(xù)評(píng)估，同時(shí)能夠跨越國(guó)界共享經(jīng)驗(yàn)與成果。

Resilience is not an endpoint but a pathway: a continuous process of learning to live differently on a changing planet. This means aligning scientific knowledge with municipal planning, translating global frameworks into local priorities, and ensuring that resilience strategies are financed, monitored, and shared across borders.

結(jié)語(yǔ)

Conclusion

當(dāng)代城市實(shí)踐所呈現(xiàn)出的經(jīng)驗(yàn)十分明確：未來(lái)的城市不僅可以，而且必須被設(shè)計(jì)為兼具智能性、包容性，并與自然系統(tǒng)相協(xié)調(diào)的整體。韌性不應(yīng)被理解為面對(duì)沖擊時(shí)的被動(dòng)承受，而應(yīng)被視為一個(gè)持續(xù)適應(yīng)、不斷演化的過(guò)程。

The lesson emerging from contemporary urban practice is unambiguous: future cities can and must be designed to be intelligent, inclusive, and attuned to natural systems. Resilience should not be understood as mere endurance in the face of disruption, but as a process of continuous adaptation and evolution.

在氣候變化語(yǔ)境下，區(qū)域創(chuàng)新的意義已超越經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)本身，應(yīng)被重新定位為生態(tài)治理的關(guān)鍵機(jī)制，通過(guò)協(xié)同調(diào)動(dòng)科學(xué)、技術(shù)與治理能力，在保障地球系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定的同時(shí)推動(dòng)人類福祉的提升。

In the context of climate change, regional innovation must therefore be conceived not only as a driver of economic growth, but as a central mechanism of ecological stewardship, one in which science, technology, and governance are mobilized to sustain planetary systems while advancing human well-being.

決定城市未來(lái)的，不是對(duì)氣候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的被動(dòng)預(yù)測(cè)，而是對(duì)適應(yīng)性解決方案的主動(dòng)試驗(yàn)與制度化落實(shí)。正是在這一過(guò)程中，氣候韌性的城市得以成形——它們既智能、包容，又尊重并順應(yīng)自然系統(tǒng)，不是消耗地球，而是有意識(shí)地與地球共生。

The future of cities will not be shaped by those who merely seek to predict climate risks, but by those who actively prototype adaptive solutions and embed them within urban institutions. Climate-resilient cities can thus be designed as intelligent, inclusive, and attuned to natural systems: cities that do not simply occupy the Earth, but consciously coexist with it.

IPP公共關(guān)系與傳播中心

審校｜劉 深

排版｜周浩鍇

終審｜劉金程

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