梅里·馬達沙希：極端天氣事件頻發，城市怎么辦？

IPP評論是國家高端智庫華南理工大學公共政策研究院（IPP）官方微信平臺。

導語：亞洲多地在11月下旬遭遇強風暴與洪澇災害，惡劣天氣已造成大量傷亡，并迫使大量民眾離開家園。聯合國政府間氣候變化專門委員會（IPCC）的一份評估報告預測，隨著氣溫上升，南亞和東南亞將面臨更多強降雨，季風地區發生洪水的頻率將“大幅增加”。

城市承載著大量人口，是洪澇、臺風等極端天氣和氣候事件，以及糧食、能源系統紊亂的“前線陣地”。在這一現實背景下，城市亟需將“氣候韌性”內化為空間設計、生態修復和治理結構之中的系統能力。

10月27日，在2025年世界城市日城市可持續發展全球大會“綠色低碳與韌性城市”主題會議上，IPP榮譽教授、聯合國教科文組織國際創意和可持續發展中心（ICCSD）顧問理事梅里·馬達沙希（Mehri Madarshahi）表示，氣候韌性不應僅被理解為應對沖擊的能力，而應是一種將脆弱性轉化為“適應性智慧”的進化過程。她指出，面對氣候變化這一關鍵挑戰，單靠技術難以奏效，亟須推動技術、生態與治理的協同融合，并將自然設計、社會公平與文化智慧納入下一代氣候解決方案之中。

IPP榮譽教授、聯合國教科文組織國際創意和可持續發展中心（ICCSD）顧問理事梅里·馬達沙希（Mehri Madarshahi）在會上發言。

梅里·馬達沙希（Mehri Madarshahi）

華南理工大學公共政策研究院（IPP）榮譽教授、聯合國教科文組織國際創意和可持續發展中心（ICCSD）顧問理事

Honorary Professorof The Institute of Public Policy (IPP) ,South China University of Technology (SCUT) ; Member of Advisory Board of UNESCO International Centre for Creative Economy and Sustainable Development（ICCSD）

正文

氣候韌性城市的未來——當創新與生態相遇

The Future of Climate-Resilient Cities——Where Innovation Meets Ecology

科技創新與生態發展如何實現協同，是擺在全人類面前的共同課題。在快速城市化進程中，真正的難題并不在于創新本身，而在于如何以更負責任的方式創新，使科技進步與自然相互支撐，而不是彼此消耗。

At the intersection of our shared future lies the pursuit of scientific and technological innovation in harmony with ecological development. In an era of rapid urbanization, the central challenge before us is not innovation per se, but responsible innovation, ensuring that progress becomes an ally, rather than an adversary, of nature.

我們正身處一個具有決定意義的歷史時刻。氣候危機已經從警示走向現實，成為全人類共同面對的緊急挑戰。這不僅需要國際社會的協同努力，更需要匯聚集體的智慧與創造力。頻繁發生的洪水、熱浪與野火不斷昭示：城市韌性的提升，不只是承受沖擊，更是一種主動的、創造性的轉型行動。

We are living at a decisive moment. The climate crisis has shifted from a distant warning to a planetary emergency, one that demands not only global cooperation, but collective ingenuity. Each flood, heatwave, and wildfire conveys the same imperative: resilience is not merely a matter of endurance; it is a creative and transformative act.

12月2日，斯里蘭卡尼亞姆甘多拉，迪特瓦氣旋過后，強降雨導致洪水泛濫，建筑物被淹沒，這是從空中拍攝的畫面。圖源：路透社

長期以來，韌性被視為抵御沖擊、吸收風險的能力；但在氣候變化的背景下，韌性需要被重新理解——它不只是抵御沖擊，更是一種將脆弱性轉化為適應性智慧的能力。

Long understood as the capacity to resist and absorb shocks, resilience in the context of climate change must now be redefined as something more profound, the conversion of vulnerability into adaptive intelligence.

我們常說，未來將是城市的時代；但更深層的問題在于，未來究竟取決于我們在多大程度上讓自然融入城市，以及在多大程度上讓“韌性”保持人性的溫度。

We often say the future will be urban, but the deeper truth is this, the future will be determined by how urban we allow nature to be, and how humane we allow resilience to become.

縱觀歷史，城市始終映照著人類文明的本質，承載著人類的雄心與理想。然而在今天，這面“城市之鏡”卻呈現出一個令人不安的悖論：那些原本旨在帶來穩定的體系——基礎設施、經濟運行方式、生活方式，以及一切構成人之為人的要素——正受到“不穩定”本身的嚴峻考驗。

Throughout history, cities have mirrored the essence of human civilizations, where our ambitions, anxieties, and aspirations converge. Yet today, our urban mirrors reveal a troubling paradox: the very systems designed for stability, our infrastructures, our economies, our ways of life and all other elements that make humanity human, are being tested by instability itself.

如今，全球一半以上的人口居住在城市，城市活動貢獻了超過70%的溫室氣體排放。同時，城市也是氣候沖擊的最前沿，正直接承受極端高溫、洪澇災害、海平面上升，以及水、糧食和能源系統紊亂所帶來的壓力，并由此引發森林火災、人口遷移和貧困等一系列連鎖問題。因此，城市生活已與氣候挑戰緊密交織，難以分割。

Urban areas now house more than half of the world’s population and generate over 70 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. They are also the frontlines of climate impacts, facing extreme heat, flooding, sea-level rise, and disruptions to water, food, energy systems, forest fires and migration and poverty. The urban experience is, therefore, has become inseparable from the climate challenge.

氣候變化已不再是一個單純的環境議題，而是對城市未來所進行的一場最為復雜、也最為嚴苛的“壓力測試”。每一次極端氣候事件，都不僅是一場氣象災害，更是對治理能力、公平正義以及社會文化的全面檢驗。氣候變化也已成為二十一世紀城市生活的決定性背景。每一座城市，如今都站在脆弱性與機遇的交匯點上。

Climate change is no longer a purely environmental problem; it has become the most sophisticated stress test of our urban futures. Every extreme event is not just a meteorological incident, but it is a test of governance, equity, and culture. Climate change has become the defining condition of urban life in the twenty-first century. Every city now stands at the intersection of vulnerability and opportunity.

然而，復雜之中也蘊含著新的可能。作為創造力與實驗精神的引擎，城市同樣掌握著通往解決方案的關鍵。它們可以成為轉型的“實驗室”，在其中探索以氣候敏感性為導向的空間規劃、以自然為基礎的設計理念，以及增強社會韌性的制度與實踐，從而重新塑造人與環境之間的關系。

Yet, within this complexity lies possibility. Cities, as engines of creativity and experimentation, also hold keys to solutions. They can serve as laboratories of transformation testing new forms of climate-sensitive planning, nature-based design, and social resilience that redefine the relationship between people and their environment.

通過綠色建筑、藍綠空間與高密度城市形態的融合，探索人與自然共生的城市發展路徑。圖源：作者供圖

韌性城市并不僅僅是在災害中幸存下來，它們能夠學習、適應，并在沖擊之后變得更加強大。這需要一種綜合性的路徑，將空間規劃、生態修復與包容性治理有機聯結起來。

Resilient cities do more than survive disasters: They learn, adapt, and emerge stronger.This requires an integrated approach linking spatial planning, ecological restoration, and inclusive governance.

當下，我們已看到一系列突破性進展：以生物基材料為代表的新型建筑技術、基于藻類的碳捕集方案、由人工智能驅動的微電網系統，以及能夠充當“碳匯”的建筑形態。同時，以自然為本的解決方案——如垂直森林、透水鋪裝和可吸收碳的建筑立面——正在把城市的物質肌理轉變為生態修復的積極參與者。

Today, we see breakthroughs in bio-based construction materials, algae-based carbon capture, AI-powered microgrids, and buildings that act as carbon sinks and we observe nature-based solutions, such as vertical forests, permeable pavements, and carbon-absorbing facades, that can transform the physical fabric of cities into active participants in ecological restoration.

當技術與自然形成協同，城市轉型才真正具備可持續的可能。圖源：作者提供

在這一方面，全球已經出現了一些令人鼓舞的實踐案例，例如：哥本哈根的“暴雨廊道”（cloudburst boulevards,）通過專門設計的城市通道，將洪水安全、有序地引導穿行于城市空間之中。

In this regard, encouraging examples are that of, Copenhagen’s cloudburst boulevards, that are designed to channel floodwaters safely through urban spaces.

上海的“海綿城市”建設則致力于把超大城市轉變為一個能夠吸納、蓄存并再利用雨水的“生命系統”。

Shanghai’s sponge city initiatives, to turn the metropolis into a living system that absorbs and reuses rainwater.

盧旺達首都基加利（Kigali）的綠色增長戰略聚焦在低碳規劃的同時，提升社會包容性，實現環境目標與社會發展并行推進。

Kigali’s green growth strategies, in combining low-carbon planning with social inclusion.

哥倫比亞第二大城市麥德林（Medellín）的社會城市主義實踐曾經主要用于交通出行的纜車系統，如今成為連接社區、重塑社會信心與希望的重要紐帶。

Medellín’s social urbanism, where cable cars once built for mobility now connect communities and foster hope.

新加坡的數據驅動型降溫網絡。在這一體系中，先進技術與城市歷史文化遺產實現了和諧共存。

Singapore’s data-driven cooling networks, where technology and heritage coexist harmoniously.

這些案例表明，韌性的產生，正是在技術與信任相互交融、基礎設施與城市身份彼此塑造的時候，也是在自然、文化與知識融匯為一種具有前瞻性的生存戰略之際。因此，城市韌性并不只是“抵抗沖擊”的能力，而是一種重構的過程。

These cases show that resilience begins where technology meets trust, where infrastructure meets identity, and where nature, culture, and knowledge converge into a visionary survival strategy. Urban resilience then, is not simply resistance. It is reconfiguration.

一座真正具備韌性的城市，能夠在沖擊之后實現理性而有序的自我重組：使工程體系與生態系統相協調，讓經濟運行與地球邊界相契合，并促使文化價值與行為方式的轉變彼此呼應。這種重組，依賴于跨學科的智慧：能夠傾聽生態的工程學、尊重地球邊界的經濟學，以及激發行為轉變的文化敘事。

A resilient city reorganizes itself intelligently after shocks, aligning engineering with ecology, economics with planetary boundaries, and culture with behavioral change.This reorganization requires cross-disciplinary intelligence: engineering that listens to ecology, economics that respects planetary boundaries, and cultural narratives that inspire behavioral change.

因此，城市規劃必須從事后規制走向前瞻預判，并清醒地認識到：一座“智慧城市”或許在技術上足夠聰明，卻依然可能在結構上極其脆弱。

Urban planning must, therefore, evolve from regulation to anticipation and assume that a smart city can besmartbut still profoundly fragile.

城市韌性需要在城市空間、信息系統、能源結構、產業布局、功能分區、綠色空間與公共交通之間進行系統性、協同化的整體設計。圖源：嘉賓演講ppt

我們真正需要的，是“智慧而有遠見的城市”——將計算智能與文化智慧相結合的城市。因為缺乏包容性的適應注定難以奏效，而沒有同理心的技術只會制造疏離。在這樣的愿景之下，城市不應被設計為凝固在時間中的基礎設施，而應被視為具備進化能力的“生命體”。

What we, therefore, need arewise cities:cities that combine computational intelligence with cultural wisdom, since adaptation without inclusion can fail, and technology without empathy alienates. In such a visionary approach, we must design cities not as infrastructures frozen in time but as living organisms capable of evolution.

同樣重要的是，氣候行動不能忽視文化智慧。它不應只是點綴，而應成為理解社區風險認知與變化態度的診斷工具。面向未來的氣候解決方案，必須將深度技術與深層人性相融合——因為氣候創新，既發生在代碼與碳排放層面，也根植于人的行為與信念之中。

Moreover, climate action plans must integrate cultural intelligence, not as aesthetic addition, but as a diagnostic tool to understand how communities perceive risk and change. The next generation of climate solutions must unite deep tech with deep humanity, for climate innovation which is, as much about behavior and belief as it is, about code and carbon.

為應對這一挑戰，我們必須采用綜合性的規劃模式，將科學技術創新與生態目標直接聯結起來。

To meet this challenge, we must adopt integrated planning models that link scientific and technological innovation directly with ecological goals.

可持續智慧城市需要通過數字技術將治理、交通、能源、水資源、農業、公共服務與居民生活等多個系統整合聯動。圖源：嘉賓演講ppt

在人工智能、生物技術、材料科學和數字基礎設施等領域進步的推動下，綠色技術能夠對生態系統進行監測、減少污染并優化資源配置。歸根結底，具備氣候韌性的城市是實現可持續未來的重要基石。

Green technologies, powered by advances in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, materials science, and digital infrastructure, can monitor ecosystems, reduce pollution, and optimize resources. Ultimately, climate-resilient cities are the foundation of a sustainable future.

但我們也應當清醒地認識到：盡管現代技術可以作為強有力的工具加以運用，僅憑技術本身，并不足以完成城市的轉型。

We should remember,however, that although modern tecnologies could be employed as tools but technology alone will not transform our cities.

治理是關鍵所在。構建城市韌性，需要形成新的城市治理與領導模式，將地方層面的行動與《巴黎協定》以及可持續發展目標等全球性框架有效銜接起來。聯合國可持續發展目標（UNSDGs）所涵蓋的一系列應對多重環境風險的政策取向，尤其是目標11（建設包容、安全、有抵御災害能力和可持續的到城市和人類住區）與目標13（采取緊急行動應對氣候變化及其影響），為通向可持續未來提供了一個重要的全球框架。

Governance is central. Building resilience requires new forms of urban leadership that connect local action to global frameworks such as the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals. Wide range of policies that respond to multiple environmental risks shows the UN Sustainable Development Goals (UNSDGs)—specifically Goal 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), and Goal 13 (Climate Action) could provide a global framework for a sustainable future.

聯合國17個可持續發展目標。圖源：路透社

政府、公民社會、學術界與私營部門之間的伙伴關系至關重要，唯有如此，才能確保氣候應對措施既行之有效，又公平正義。

Partnerships among governments, civil society, academia, and the private sector are essential to ensure that climate responses are both effective and just.

韌性并非終點，而是一條持續前行的路徑——是在不斷變化的星球上，持續學習以不同方式生活的過程。這意味著，要將科學知識與城市治理和規劃有效對接，把全球性框架轉化為地方層面的行動重點，并確保韌性戰略得到資金支持、持續評估，同時能夠跨越國界共享經驗與成果。

Resilience is not an endpoint but a pathway: a continuous process of learning to live differently on a changing planet. This means aligning scientific knowledge with municipal planning, translating global frameworks into local priorities, and ensuring that resilience strategies are financed, monitored, and shared across borders.

結語

Conclusion

當代城市實踐所呈現出的經驗十分明確：未來的城市不僅可以，而且必須被設計為兼具智能性、包容性，并與自然系統相協調的整體。韌性不應被理解為面對沖擊時的被動承受，而應被視為一個持續適應、不斷演化的過程。

The lesson emerging from contemporary urban practice is unambiguous: future cities can and must be designed to be intelligent, inclusive, and attuned to natural systems. Resilience should not be understood as mere endurance in the face of disruption, but as a process of continuous adaptation and evolution.

在氣候變化語境下，區域創新的意義已超越經濟增長本身，應被重新定位為生態治理的關鍵機制，通過協同調動科學、技術與治理能力，在保障地球系統穩定的同時推動人類福祉的提升。

In the context of climate change, regional innovation must therefore be conceived not only as a driver of economic growth, but as a central mechanism of ecological stewardship, one in which science, technology, and governance are mobilized to sustain planetary systems while advancing human well-being.

決定城市未來的，不是對氣候風險的被動預測，而是對適應性解決方案的主動試驗與制度化落實。正是在這一過程中，氣候韌性的城市得以成形——它們既智能、包容，又尊重并順應自然系統，不是消耗地球，而是有意識地與地球共生。

The future of cities will not be shaped by those who merely seek to predict climate risks, but by those who actively prototype adaptive solutions and embed them within urban institutions. Climate-resilient cities can thus be designed as intelligent, inclusive, and attuned to natural systems: cities that do not simply occupy the Earth, but consciously coexist with it.

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