China's tariff-free policy opens new growth path for Africa

By Alexander Ayertey Odonkor

Lead: As global trade fractures and protectionism rises, China's extension of zero tariffs to 53 African nations offers the continent a crucial opening to grow exports, attract investment and boost development.

Starting May 1, 2026, China will expand its zero-tariff policy to cover imports from all 53 African countries with which it maintains diplomatic relations, aiming to further expand economic cooperation between China and Africa.

Last year, trade between China and Africa reached a record $348.05 billion, up 17.7% from 2024, with imports from Africa's least-developed countries (LDCs) witnessing significant growth. Between Dec. 1, 2024, when China extended zero-tariff treatment to 33 African LDCs on 100% of their products, and March 2025, Chinese imports from African LDCs jumped 15.2% to $21.42 billion.

Confronted with severe structural impediments to sustainable development, African LDCs view tariff-free access to the Chinese market as an opportunity to diversify their economies and reduce dependence on a limited number of exports.

The Great Hall of the People on the eve of the 2024 Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in Beijing, China, September 5, 2024. [Photo/Xinhua]

First proposed at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) Ministerial Conference in 2003 and implemented in 2005 for a select group of products, the zero-tariff policy has since been progressively expanded — first to include 33 African LDCs, and now all 53 African countries with diplomatic ties to Beijing. For the continent, it could be a game changer.

Home to 16% of the world's entire population, sub-Saharan Africa in 2024 accounted for 67% of the world's population living in extreme poverty, according to World Bank data. For years, the African continent and developing countries worldwide have benefited from trade that has helped lift more than 1 billion people from poverty since 1990. However, in recent years, rising trade tensions and policy uncertainty have disrupted global trade. Increased tariffs, reduced trade volumes and destabilized supply chains have slowed economic growth, making it difficult for the Global South, including Africa, to lift its people from poverty.

Faced with new challenges from shifting global trade patterns, African countries could leverage China's expanded zero-tariff policy to revitalize development now and in the future. The United Nations projects that sub-Saharan Africa's population will grow 79% to 2.2 billion by 2054. The growth could represent either an opportunity or a threat. Africa could reap demographic dividends or face an economic crisis, depending on how this challenge is addressed.

Against the backdrop of unprecedented global change and at this critical juncture in its development, Africa stands to gain from an expanded toolkit. By extending the zero-tariff policy to 53 African countries, China has equipped the continent with an additional tool for navigating the complexities of global trade as it pursues its development goals.

As the two sides embark on expanded cooperation, especially in agricultural trade built on key initiatives including the "green channel" and complemented by the zero-tariff policy, the effort could unlock new growth opportunities along Chinese and African agricultural value chains and related industries.

At the Eighth Ministerial Conference of FOCAC in November 2021, China announced the "green channel" to facilitate market access for African agricultural products, and by June 2023, the initiative had helped 16 agricultural products from 11 African countries access the Chinese market. By 2024, Chinese imports of African agricultural products had expanded to $5.3 billion, up from $190 million in 2000, making China the continent's second-largest market for agricultural products.

Often hampered by a lack of stable markets, which traps smallholder farmers in poverty, discourages investors and impedes entrepreneurship, African agriculture could benefit significantly from duty-free access to the vast Chinese market. For example, Kenya, a major global exporter of cut flowers, grapples with accessing new markets due to high tariffs and complex regulations. Since the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began, Kenyan flower exporters, who are currently awaiting China's duty-free access on May 1 to enter the Chinese market, have seen exports plunge by more than 50%, with losses hitting $4.2 million in just three weeks.

For Africa, where agriculture accounts for about one-third of the continent's GDP and employs roughly half of its population, attempts to eliminate growth barriers in the sector, identified as the engine that could power the continent's economic transformation, are critical to job creation for the region's bulging youth population. According to an IMF report, by 2030, half of the increase in the global labor force will come from sub-Saharan Africa, requiring the creation of 15 million new jobs annually. Currently, approximately 3 million formal jobs are created per year in Africa, but 10 to 12 million young people enter the labor force annually.

However, with the zero-tariff policy being extended to 53 African countries, and supported by key initiatives including the "green channel" and Agricultural Technology Demonstration Centers, which have become key hubs for Chinese technology transfer, African agriculture could attract more foreign investment. These investments could help enhance various stages of agricultural capacity and accelerate the shift from Africa's predominant traditional subsistence-based farming, including rain-fed agriculture, to modernized, technology-driven farming practices characterized by higher productivity.

Chinese agricultural expert Song Chunfang (3rd R, back) poses with local residents in Anosiarivo, Madagascar, on March 25, 2025. [Photo by Li Yahui/Xinhua]

Beyond agriculture, Africa's manufacturing industries, including textiles, leather and minerals companies, could leverage the zero-tariff policy to expand into the Chinese market and accelerate the transition from primary commodities to high-value-added processing.

According to the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, the largest African manufacturing industries by value added are food products, other nonmetallic mineral products and beverages, with the continent accounting for just a 2% share of world manufacturing value added and contributing only 3.2% to global GDP.

Given Africa's abundant natural resources, including huge tracts of arable land, a burgeoning population and several minerals, especially those needed for the energy transition, it is evident the region is not pulling its weight. As identified by the African Union's Agenda 2063 and the 2030 Agenda, African countries will have to ensure local value addition via high-value manufacturing, focusing on accelerated, sustainable industrialization to foster GDP growth, generate decent jobs and drive economic diversification.

To embark on this trajectory, especially at a time when the world is witnessing the reversal of decades of economic globalization, Africa should prioritize international cooperation over protectionism, which often leads to fragmentation. By leveraging various trade-friendly initiatives, including China's zero-tariff policy, the Belt and Road Initiative and the African Continental Free Trade Area, Africa stands a pivotal chance to address pressing challenges both now and in the future.

Beyond the remarkable growth of agricultural exports to China, the prospect of African textiles, mineral products, light industrial goods and other products exporting to China is equally promising under the zero-tariff policy. For textiles, African countries like Ethiopia, with their burgeoning textile industry, can leverage duty-free access to tap into China's vast consumer and industrial textile market, attracting more Chinese investment in production lines and technology transfer to upgrade from raw material exports to high-value-added finished products. Africa's abundant reserves of copper, aluminum, cobalt and other strategic minerals — which are in high demand for China's energy transition and manufacturing — will gain stronger competitiveness with zero tariffs, driving a steady growth in exports and promoting the transformation from primary ore exports to deep processing products through Sino-African industrial cooperation. The zero-tariff policy will also lower export costs of light industrial goods, including leather products, handicrafts and daily necessities, allowing African enterprises to meet the diverse needs of Chinese consumers, while close Sino-African cooperation in production technology and quality control will help African products gain more recognition in the Chinese market.

In a word, through attracting investment, promoting technology transfer, and strengthening domestic capacities with China's support and collaborative efforts, Africa will lay a solid foundation for its long-term peace, stability, and prosperity in the years and decades ahead.

Alexander Ayertey Odonkor is the director of the Ghana Centre for China Studies.