梅里·馬達沙希｜冰融北極：地緣政治競爭與全球秩序的脆弱性

IPP評論是國家高端智庫華南理工大學公共政策研究院（IPP）官方微信平臺。

導語：當地時間2月22日，美國總統特朗普在社交媒體上表示，他將與路易斯安那州州長杰夫·蘭德里合作，向格陵蘭島派遣一艘醫院船，為當地“許多生病卻未得到妥善照顧的人”提供醫療服務。對此，格陵蘭島自治政府總理延斯-弗雷德里克·尼爾森22日對此表示拒絕。此前，特朗普多次宣稱不排除以“軍事或經濟脅迫”手段獲取格陵蘭島的可能性。上個月，特朗普在與北約秘書長呂特達成所謂的“框架協議”后，排除了使用武力奪取格陵蘭島的可能性。

IPP榮譽教授梅里·馬達沙希認為，由于人類活動導致的氣候變暖，包括格陵蘭島在內北極地區不僅正經歷著前所未有的環境與地貌變化，也在迅速轉變為一個充滿地緣政治、經濟與軍事競爭的關鍵區域。隨著各國在此紛紛展開戰略布局，北極正在成為全球風險的“放大器”。馬達沙希教授認為，北極的融化不僅是一場區域性環境轉變，更是對人類能否調和權力政治與生態極限的考驗。其治理方式將深刻反映正在形成的世界秩序的本質，并關乎全球穩定。

2月22日，特朗普在社交媒體發文稱，他將派一艘滿載醫療用品的船前往該島，并聲稱島上“許多人”生病了，“沒有得到照顧”。圖：Truth Social

梅里·馬達沙希（Mehri Madarshahi）

華南理工大學公共政策研究院（IPP）榮譽教授、聯合國教科文組織下屬國際創意和可持續發展中心（ICCSD）顧問委員會成員

Honorary Professorof The Institute of Public Policy (IPP) ,South China University of Technology (SCUT) ; Member of the Advisory Committee of the International Center for Creativity and Sustainable Development under the auspicious of UNESO (ICCSD).

正文

The Melting Arctic: Geopolitical Rivalries, andFragility of Global Order

冰融北極：地緣政治競爭與全球秩序的脆弱性

引言

Introduction

在成為地緣政治博弈的舞臺之前，北極長期以來一直是地球生命體系的重要穩定器。其廣袤的冰蓋將太陽輻射反射回太空，從而調節全球氣溫；其寒冷的海水幫助維持溫鹽環流，影響跨洲際的天氣系統；其永久凍土層則封存著數千年來積累的大量碳儲量。

Long before it became a theatre of geopolitical calculation, the Arctic was a stabilizer of life on Earth. Its vast ice sheets reflect solar radiation back into space, moderating global temperatures. Its cold waters help regulate thermohaline circulation, influencing weather systems across continents. Its permafrost has locked away immense quantities of carbon accumulated over millennia.

從歷史上看，這一地區深刻塑造了大氣平衡、海平面變化以及生物多樣性的格局。原住民社會適應了其嚴酷卻相對穩定的自然節律。全球氣候的整體均衡，在一定程度上依賴于其冰凍狀態的持續存在。

Historically, the region has shaped atmospheric balance, sea levels, and biodiversity patterns. Indigenous communities adapted to its harsh but stable rhythms. Global climatic equilibrium depended, in part, on its frozen continuity.

如今，這種穩定性正在消蝕。加速融冰、氣溫上升與生態系統紊亂，正以前所未有的速度改變這一脆弱環境。所謂“北極放大效應”——即該地區升溫速度超過全球平均水平兩倍以上的現象——正在削弱冰雪反照率效應，加速永久凍土解凍，并破壞生態系統穩定。隨著冰層消退，深色海面吸收更多熱量；解凍土壤釋放出甲烷和二氧化碳；大量淡水流入改變海洋鹽度與環流結構。

Today, that stability is eroding. Accelerated ice melt, rising temperatures, and ecological disruption are transforming this fragile environment at an unprecedented pace. Arctic amplification, the phenomenon by which the region warms at more than twice the global average- is disrupting ice albedo effects, accelerating permafrost thaw, and destabilizing ecosystems. As ice disappears, darker ocean surfaces absorb more heat. Methane and carbon dioxide are released from thawing soils. Freshwater influx alters ocean salinity and circulation.

海冰在地球能量收支中的作用。在高反照率情況下，雪面能反射85-90%的太陽輻射，使下方保持寒冷；在低反照率下，海洋表面僅反射約10%的光線而吸收大部分熱量，導致海水變暖。（圖源： Meereisportal）

這些變化并非單純自然周期所致，而是與人類活動引發的全球變暖、工業擴張以及長期氣候治理不足密切相關。北極，這一曾被視為遙遠而冰封的邊緣地帶，已迅速成為21世紀最具深遠影響的地區之一。

These changes are not the result of natural cycles alone. They are closely linked to human-induced global warming, industrial expansion, and decades of insufficient climate governance.The Arctic, once perceived as a distant and frozen periphery, has rapidly emerged as one of the most consequential regions of the twenty-first century.

當下北極所發生的一切，折射出更為深層的地球治理危機，也揭示出國際秩序日益加劇的緊張與失衡。隨著冰層退縮、空間開放，主要大國正迅速行動，力圖鞏固戰略位置、獲取經濟優勢并建立安全支點。美國、俄羅斯、中國、歐洲國家以及加拿大，不僅越來越多地將這一地區視為環境前沿，更視其為影響力擴展、競爭博弈乃至潛在對抗的戰場。

What is unfolding in the Arctic today reflects a deeper crisis of planetary stewardship. It also reveals a growing crisis of international order. As ice retreats and new spaces open, major powers are moving rapidly to secure strategic positions, economic advantages, and security footholds. The United States, Russia, China, European states, and Canada increasingly view the region not only as an environmental frontier, but as a zone of influence, competition, and potential confrontation.

因此，北極變化不能被理解為一次孤立的環境事件，而是全球數十年來經濟發展模式與政治抉擇累積演變的結果。不作為、短期主義思維以及薄弱的國際協調，使這一地區的氣候風險在不斷積聚，其上升速度已遠遠超過現有治理機制所能有效回應的能力。

The transformation of the Arctic, therefore, cannot be understood as an isolated environmental event. It is the cumulative outcome of economic models and political choices made over decades across the world. Inaction, short-termism, and weak international coordination have allowed climate risks to accumulate faster than governance mechanisms could respond in this region.

隨著冰層消退，曾經難以進入的區域正日益向人類活動開放。新的海上航道有望縮短主要市場之間的運輸距離。豐富的油氣資源、稀土元素以及戰略性礦產儲量，正吸引著商業資本與政治力量的關注。旅游業、漁業以及基礎設施建設也開始向這些生態脆弱地帶延伸。

As ice retreats, previously inaccessible spaces are becoming increasingly open to human activity. New maritime routes promise shorter connections between major markets. Vast reserves of hydrocarbons, rare earth elements, and strategic minerals are attracting commercial and political interest. Tourism, fisheries, and infrastructure development are expanding into fragile zones.

因此，氣候變化所帶來的結果具有某種悖論性：它不僅造成了環境損失，也開辟了新的經濟與軍事布局空間。港口、機場、衛星設施和監測系統正在擴建或升級；海軍部署與聯合演習日益增多；各國的戰略構想也在根據北極現實不斷調整。

What climate change has, therefore, produced, paradoxically, is not only environmental loss, but also new arenas for economic and military positioning. Ports, airfields, satellite facilities, and surveillance systems are being expanded or modernized. Naval deployments and joint exercises are increasing. Strategic doctrines are being adjusted to Arctic realities.

二、氣候變遷與戰略重構

II. Climate Transformation and Strategic Repositioning

隨著北極升溫持續加速，氣候變化已不再僅僅被視為環境議題，而是日益被納入國家安全戰略規劃之中。

As Arctic warming accelerates, climate change is no longer treated merely as an environmental issue, but has increasingly become embedded in national security planning.

北約態勢的演進、俄羅斯對其北部邊疆的安全化處理、中國不斷擴展的科研與后勤布局，以及各類相互競爭的經濟項目，正在重塑該地區的力量格局。

NATO’s evolving posture, Russia’s securitization of its northern frontier, China’s expanding scientific and logistical presence, and competing economic projects are reshaping the regional balance.

形成中的大國競爭并不僅限于軍事領域，還延伸至法律主張、投資流動、科學合作、數據控制以及制度性影響力等多個層面。

The emerging rivalry among powers is not only confined to military affairs, but it also extends to legal claims, investment flows, scientific cooperation, data control, and institutional influence.

對于美國而言，北極已成為導彈預警體系、太空監測系統以及跨大西洋防務架構中的關鍵樞紐。格陵蘭——近期爭議討論的焦點之一——位于北美與歐洲之間的戰略要沖，這一地緣位置進一步強化了華盛頓鞏固其戰略存在的意圖。

For the United States, the Arctic has become central to missile warning systems, space surveillance, and transatlantic defence architecture. Greenland — as a center of contentious discussions recently — occupies a pivotal position between North America and Europe, reinforcing Washington’s interest in consolidating its strategic presence.

俄羅斯將北極視為其核心國家安全前沿。近年來，其不斷擴建軍事基地，升級破冰船隊，并將北方航道納入國家防務與經濟戰略體系之中。對莫斯科而言，“高北地區”（High North）既是戰略縱深所在，也是重要的地緣政治籌碼。

Russia treats the Arctic as a core national security frontier. It has expanded military bases, modernized icebreaker fleets, and integrated the Northern Sea Route into its defence and economic strategy. For Moscow, the High North represents both strategic depth and geopolitical leverage.

中國自我定位為“近北極國家”，并通過“極地絲綢之路”框架，加強科研考察、物流布局與商業參與。這些活動雖以民用性質加以表述，但在西方語境中，往往被置于體系性競爭的視角加以解讀。

China, defining itself as a “near-Arctic state,” has intensified scientific missions, logistics development, and commercial engagement through its Polar Silk Road framework. These activities, while framed as civilian, are widely interpreted in the West through the lens of systemic rivalry.

加拿大及北歐國家加強了主權巡邏、監測體系與北部基礎設施建設。北約演習也日益納入北極情境，顯示出該地區正被系統性整合進聯盟的安全規劃之中。

Canada and Nordic states have strengthened sovereignty patrols, surveillance systems, and northern infrastructure.NATOexercises increasingly incorporate Arctic scenarios, reflecting the region’s integration into alliance security planning.

在這一不斷演變的背景下，氣候變化正發揮著“戰略加速器”的作用。它壓縮了戰略博弈的時間窗口，加劇了競爭態勢，也削弱了地理環境曾經提供的緩沖空間。

In this evolving context, climate change functions as a strategic accelerator. It compresses timelines, intensifies competition, and weakens the buffer once provided by geography.

如果當前趨勢持續下去，北極有可能淪為又一個由碎片化治理與權力政治主導、集體責任被邊緣化的博弈場域。

If current trends continue, the Arctic risks becoming another arena in which fragmented governance and power politics override collective responsibility.

北極已不再只是一個持續升溫的地區，而正逐步演變為戰略重構的核心場域。與此同時，那些為低緊張時期而設計的北極治理機制，正日益受到互不信任與地緣政治外溢效應的沖擊與擠壓。

The Arctic is no longer merely warming; it is becoming a central arena of strategic repositioning, and Arctic governance mechanisms, designed for an era of low tension, are increasingly strained by mistrust and geopolitical spillovers.

北極地區的主要航運路線圖。圖源：英國衛報

三、格陵蘭問題與聯盟治理的壓力

III. Greenland and the Strain on Alliance Governance

近年來，格陵蘭已成為美國高度關注的硬戰略焦點。格陵蘭位于北大西洋、北冰洋以及北美與歐洲大陸交匯處的關鍵地緣位置。其區位使其成為早期預警系統、導彈防御基礎設施、太空與空域監測體系的重要樞紐，同時也是控制GIUK（格陵蘭—冰島—英國）海軍缺口的關鍵節點——這一通道是跨大西洋海軍行動與核威懾體系中的重要戰略咽喉。

In recent years, Greenland has emerged as a hard strategic focus for the United States. Greenland occupies a pivotal geostrategic location at the intersection of the North Atlantic, the Arctic Ocean, and the North American and European landmasses. Its position makes it a linchpin for early-warning systems, missile defence infrastructure, space and air monitoring, and control of the GIUK (Greenland,Iceland,UK) naval gap, a critical chokepoint for transAtlantic naval movements and nuclear deterrence.

作為丹麥王國內的自治領地，格陵蘭在跨大西洋安全架構中處于高度敏感的位置。數十年來，美國的防務設施在丹麥主權與聯盟合作框架下并存運行。根據美丹之間長期存在的防務安排，美軍一直在格陵蘭保持軍事存在，尤以皮圖菲克太空基地（Pituffik Space Base）為代表。然而，近年來美國領導層的政治表態已超越傳統安全合作的范疇，公開主張對該島實施直接控制甚至收購，并一度提出使其正式成為美國領土的設想。這一立場明顯背離了二戰后北約所確立的基本規范。

As an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, Greenland occupies a sensitive position in transatlantic security arrangements. For decades, U.S. defence installations coexisted with Danish sovereignty and alliance cooperation. Under longstanding defence arrangements between the U.S. and Denmark, American military forces have maintained a presence in Greenland, notably at Pituffik Space Base. But recent political rhetoric by U.S. leadership has gone beyond traditional security cooperation to advocate for direct control or acquisition of the island, even floating the idea that it could become formally American territory. This is a striking departure from post-World War II NATO norms.

美國方面關于加強對基礎設施與資源控制的表態，已在歐盟與北約內部引發廣泛關切。

Expressions of American interest in greater control over infrastructure and resources have raised concerns within the European Union and NATO.

歐洲各國政府對此作出強烈回應。多位歐盟及北約成員國發表聯合聲明，強調格陵蘭的未來屬于丹麥及其自治當局的內部事務，并警告任何來自美國方面——即便只是言辭層面的——“接管”意圖，都可能動搖聯盟團結的根本基礎。一些歐洲領導人更將這一爭議界定為對《北大西洋公約》第五條精神的挑戰。該條款規定，盟國在遭受外部侵略時應承擔集體防御義務。在一種假設情境下，若美國對另一北約成員領土動用武力，集體防御的邏輯將面臨最嚴峻的考驗：第五條是否意味著歐洲需要為丹麥對抗華盛頓？歐洲官員已將這種可能性形容為聯盟面臨的根本性危機。

European governments have reacted sharply. Several EU and NATO members issued joint statements asserting that Greenland’s future is an internal matter for Denmark and its autonomous authorities, and warning that any attempt by the United States to seize control-even rhetorically- threatens the very foundation of alliance solidarity. Some European leaders framed this dispute as a challenge to the spirit of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which commits allies to mutual defence against external aggression. In the hypothetical scenario of a U.S. use of force against a fellow NATO territory, the logic of collective defence would face its most extreme test: would Article 5 obligate Europe to defend Denmark against Washington? European officials have described such a possibility as a fundamental crisis for the alliance.

這些舉動被廣泛視為對以尊重主權與集體防御為基礎的聯盟規范的試探與沖擊。

These moves are widely perceived as testing alliance norms based on mutual respect for sovereignty and collective defence.

這一爭議亦在北約內部引發討論，圍繞如何強化歐洲防務支柱，并調整北極地區的行動構想，以確保在跨大西洋分歧加劇的背景下，戰略合作不至于發生結構性松動。

The dispute has also triggered discussions within NATO about enhancing a European defence pillar and adjusting operational concepts in the Arctic to ensure that strategic cooperation does not unravel amid transatlantic disagreements.

這一問題所牽涉的，遠不止一場雙邊分歧。格陵蘭爭議所暴露的，是西方安全架構內部更深層次的張力——即合作式治理與單邊戰略算計之間的結構性矛盾。

At stake is more than a bilateral disagreement. The Greenland issue exposes a deeper tension within Western security arrangements: between cooperative governance and unilateral strategic calculation.

如果聯盟成員以犧牲伙伴利益為代價追求領土或基礎設施優勢，集體防御框架的可信度勢必受到削弱。建立在信任與互惠基礎之上的第五條邏輯，也將更容易受到政治層面的重新詮釋與動搖。

If alliance members pursue territorial or infrastructural advantage at the expense of partners, the credibility of collective defence frameworks is weakened. The logic of Article 5, built on trust and reciprocity, becomes vulnerable to political reinterpretation.

因此，格陵蘭問題生動地表明，氣候驅動下的戰略重構如何可能動搖既有制度基礎。環境變化在開啟新的物理空間的同時，也在對合作所依托的政治架構施加持續壓力。

Greenland thus illustrates how climate-driven strategic repositioning can destabilize institutional foundations. Environmental change is opening physical space while placing stress on the political architecture of cooperation.

2025年3月15日，格陵蘭民眾在努克美國領事館前舉行抗議活動。圖源：美聯社

四、人類所面臨的直接與長期影響

IV. The Immediate and Long-Term Human Consequences

正如本文所指出的，氣候變化所帶來的結果具有某種悖論性：它不僅造成環境損失，也催生了新的經濟與軍事布局空間。港口、機場、衛星設施和監測系統正在擴建或升級；海軍部署與聯合演習不斷增加；各國戰略構想也在根據北極現實進行調整。

As we argued in this article, climate change has produced, paradoxically, not only environmental loss, but also new arenas for economic and military positioning. Ports, airfields, satellite facilities, and surveillance systems are being expanded or modernized. Naval deployments and joint exercises are increasing. Strategic doctrines are being adjusted to Arctic realities.

環境退化由此被轉化為地緣政治博弈中的戰略籌碼。

Environmental degradation has thus been translated into geopolitical leverage.

對航道、資源與物流樞紐的獲取，已不再僅由地理條件決定，而是越來越取決于技術能力、資本實力與政治站位。能夠在極端環境中開展行動的國家，將獲得不成比例的戰略優勢；而其他國家則面臨被邊緣化的風險。

Access to routes, resources, and logistical hubs is no longer determined by geography alone, but by technological capacity, financial strength, and political alignment. States capable of operating in extreme conditions gain disproportionate advantages. Others risk strategic marginalization.

在這一背景下，北極正被重新界定——不再是人類共享的生態遺產，而是一個充滿競爭與博弈的戰略空間。

In this context, the Arctic is being redefined-not as a shared ecological heritage- but as a contested strategic space.

近期的科學研究與調查性報道表明，北極融化已不再是抽象的風險預警，而正在引發一系列系統性變化，威脅水資源安全、生態系統穩定、經濟秩序以及人類健康。

Recent scientific research and investigative reporting reveal that Arctic melting is no longer an abstract risk. It is triggering systemic changes that threaten water security, ecosystems, economic stability, and human health.

過去十年是北極有記錄以來最為溫暖的十年。根據美國國家海洋和大氣管理局（National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration）的數據，2025年冬季海冰面積降至歷史最低水平。與此同時，歐盟觀測計劃“哥白尼”（Copernicus）警告稱，全球氣溫升至1.5°C的時間點可能早于此前預期。這種加速趨勢反映出化石燃料排放的持續增長，以及國際氣候協調機制的薄弱。

The past decade has been the warmest on record in the Arctic. Winter sea ice reached historic lows in 2025, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Meanwhile, the European Union’s observation programme Copernicus, warns that global temperatures are approaching 1.5°C earlier than anticipated.This acceleration reflects continued growth in fossil fuel emissions and weak international climate coordination.

哥白尼氣候觀策計劃的數據顯示，2015年12月《巴黎協定》簽署時，1.5°C的升溫閾值將在2042年3月達到。2025年末在協定簽署十周年之際，該計劃預測，這一目標將在2029年5月達到。圖片：哥白尼計劃

其中最令人警惕的后果之一，是淡水系統的退化。

One of the most alarming consequences is the degradation of freshwater systems.

在阿拉斯加的布魯克斯山脈（Brooks Range），由于永久凍土融化將鐵、錳、鎳和鋁等元素釋放進入水體循環，已有超過200條河流呈現銹橙色。阿拉斯加費爾班克斯大學（University of Alaska Fairbanks）參與的研究證實，這一被稱為“銹河”（rusting river）的現象，正是由氣候變化所驅動。隨著永久凍土解凍，數千年來被凍結的礦物質與有機物開始發生化學活化；當其暴露于氧氣和酸性水體環境中時，便引發一系列化學反應，將金屬元素淋濾并輸送進入河流系統。

In Alaska’s Brooks Range, more than 200 rivers have turned rust-orange as thawing permafrost releases iron, manganese, nickel, and aluminium into circulation. Research involving the University of Alaska Fairbanks confirms that this “rusting river” phenomenon is driven by climate change. As permafrost thaws, minerals and organic matter that were frozen for millennia become chemically active. Exposure to oxygen and acidic water triggers reactions that leach metals into river systems.

阿拉斯加北極之門國家公園庫圖克河的河水呈銹紅色。融化的永久凍土使礦物質暴露在風化作用下，導致河水酸度升高，并釋放出鐵、鋅和銅等金屬。(美國國家公園管理局）

一旦激活，這些化學過程在事實上幾乎不可逆轉。

Once initiated, these chemical processes are effectively irreversible.

類似的變化也正在歐洲多處山區顯現，包括阿爾卑斯山和比利牛斯山脈，這表明更為廣泛的地球化學失衡正在發生。

Similar transformations are emerging in mountain regions across Europe, including the Alps and Pyrenees, signalling broader geochemical disruption.

永久凍土的融化還會釋放大量溫室氣體。伍德韋爾氣候研究中心（Woodwell Climate Research Center）的研究人員指出，解凍土壤中的微生物活動會形成反饋循環，從而進一步加速全球變暖進程。

Permafrost thaw also releases massive quantities of greenhouse gases. According to researchers at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, microbial activity in thawing soils creates feedback loops that accelerate warming.

北極研究所（The Arctic Institute）的估算顯示，全球永久凍土中蘊含的碳儲量高達1.7萬億噸——約為2024年全球各國碳排放總量的45倍。即便其中僅有部分釋放，也可能從根本上動搖現有氣候減緩努力的基礎。

Estimates by The Arctic Institute suggest that global permafrost contains up to 1.7 trillion tonnes of carbon- roughly forty-five times the total emissions produced by all countries in 2024. If released even partially, this reservoir could fundamentally destabilize climate mitigation efforts.

對于北極地區的社區而言，這些變化已開始轉化為深刻的社會與經濟沖擊。飲用水受到污染，建筑物發生坍塌，海岸侵蝕迫使居民遷移；以狩獵、捕魚和季節性遷徙為基礎的傳統生計方式日益受到侵蝕。

For Arctic communities, these changes are already translate into social and economic disruption.Drinking water become contaminated. Building collapse. Coastal erosion forces relocatation. Traditional livelihoods based on hunting, fishing, and seasonal migration are increasingly undermined.

據估計，到2100年，近地表永久凍土可能大范圍消失。這將加劇野火、洪澇、地面塌陷以及極地地區的基礎設施失效。

It is estimated that, by 2100, near-surface permafrost may largely disappear. This would intensify wildfires, flooding, land collapse, and infrastructure failure across polar regions.

2003年至2024年北半球高緯度地區（北緯 60° 以北）所有陸地野火造成的年度碳排放總量估算值（百萬噸）。顏色代表排放區域。（右圖）地圖顯示了四個區域：西部亞北極（深棕色）、西部北極（淺棕色）、東部亞北極（深橙色）和東部北極（淺橙色）。圖源：哥白尼計劃

正在發生的，并不僅僅是環境退化，而是人類棲居空間的緩慢瓦解。

What is unfolding is not simply environmental degradation. It is the slow dismantling of human habitats.

更為廣泛地看，科學家警告稱，一旦跨越關鍵氣候臨界點，地球系統可能發生不可逆轉的變化，從而危及全球經濟增長、糧食安全與公共健康。

More broadly, scientists warn that crossing critical climatic thresholds could trigger irreversible changes across Earth’s systems, endangering economic growth, food security, and public health worldwide.

北極，已然成為全球風險的“放大器”。

The Arctic has become a global risk multiplier.

五、治理、秩序與未來

V. Governance, Order, and the Future

正如本文此前所指出的，北極理事會及現有治理機制原本是在地緣政治緊張程度較低的時代背景下設計的。而如今，政治極化、制裁對抗以及戰略互疑，正對這些制度框架構成持續性的壓力。

As was mentioned earlier in this article, the Arctic Council and existing governance mechanisms were designed for an era of low geopolitical tension. Today, polarization, sanctions, and strategic mistrust strain these frameworks.

環境治理日益讓位于安全考量；科學合作被政治化；透明度不斷下降。

Environmental management is increasingly subordinated to security calculation. Scientific cooperation is politicized. Transparency declines.

如果競爭壓倒責任，北極可能淪為又一個碎片化治理的場域，映射出國際體系更為廣泛的結構性裂痕。

If rivalry overtakes responsibility, the Arctic may become another arena of fragmented governance, reflecting wider fractures in the international system.

然而，另一條路徑仍然存在。

Yet another path remains possible.

北極完全可能成為重塑多邊主義的試驗場——在共同規則之下，將氣候減緩、原住民權利、安全透明與可持續發展加以整合。

The Arctic could become a laboratory for renewed multilateralism- integrating climate mitigation, indigenous rights, security transparency, and sustainable development under shared rules.

真正的抉擇，并非發展與保護之間的對立，而是在短期競爭與長期地球穩定之間作出選擇。

The choice is not between development and preservation. It is between short-term competition and long-term planetary stability.

結語：對全球成熟度的考驗

Conclusion: A Test of Global Maturity

北極的融化，并非單純的區域性變遷，而是一場檢驗——檢驗人類能否在權力政治與生態邊界之間實現真正的調和。

The melting Arctic is not merely a regional transformation. It is a test of whether humanity can reconcile power politics with ecological limits.

如果氣候失序成為軍事化與大國競爭的催化劑，其后果將遠遠超出北極圈本身。然而，若各國能夠認識到，北極的穩定本質上支撐著全球體系的穩定，那么合作仍有可能占據上風。

If climate breakdown becomes an accelerant of militarization and rivalry, the consequences will extend far beyond the polar circle. If, however, states recognize that Arctic stability underpins global stability, cooperation may yet prevail.

北極正處于地球生命支持系統與地緣政治雄心交匯的節點。

The Arctic stands at the intersection of life-support systems and geopolitical ambition.

北極將如何被治理，將深刻揭示當下正在成形的世界秩序的走向與性質。

How it is governed will reveal much about the world order now taking shape.

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