大洋馬夫“國際加油站”第7期：可以簡單地把我們和俄羅斯的時局理解為“南北朝”的局面

面對如今復雜微妙的國際關系，尤其是東西方之間的國際問題時，為了能夠一眼看透問題的本質，同時把握好“誰是我們的敵人、誰是我們的朋友”這個關鍵性的首要問題，不妨可以把思維簡略一些。比如可以把我們與俄羅斯聯邦之間的關系理解為“南北朝”的局面，這一局面是從當年的大元大蒙古國開始計算的；當時的元太祖成吉思皇帝鐵木真將自己的軍隊分給了4個不同的兒子，由此元太祖的4個兒子分別建立了自己的汗國。其中其長子術赤率領的蒙古族軍隊占領了東歐的大部分地區，以欽察草原為主體，由此奠定了欽察汗國的基業，直到在術赤次子拔都的帶領下正式建立了欽察汗國（因其汗帳用了一個大金頂，所以西方更多的稱呼欽察汗國為金帳汗國）。

元太宗英文皇帝窩闊臺大汗時期發起了著名的“長子西征”，拔都雖然不是術赤的長子，但是卻擔任了西征統軍元帥之職務、老將速不臺擔任總指揮。在“長子西征”中，拔都凸顯了其杰出的軍事和理政能力。拔都元帥以薩萊為都城建立了欽察汗國（欽察汗國成為大元朝的四大汗國之一），欽察汗國和其他汗國奉大元朝為中央正宗正統，臣屬大元朝中央朝廷，尤其是欽察汗國又統治了當時的俄羅斯諸公國包括莫斯科公國（沙皇俄羅斯帝國的前身）。俄羅斯帝國在欽察汗國的統治之下達到了250多年，所以改變了俄羅斯的人種和語言結構以及民族性格。

這是具體地說明了我們的蒙古族兄弟統治了俄羅斯，那么也就相當于我們歷史上的大元朝在間接的統治著俄羅斯。雖然并不是直接地，也沒有在俄羅斯設立行省制度，但通過欽察汗國通過一種松散的聯邦關系地方式在統治著俄羅斯。有時候方式并不重要，統治了，管制著，就行了。諸如我們在歷史上對北朝草原上的民族更多的是施行一種藩屬的關系，很多時候通過一種羈縻管轄的方式在管制少數民族。所以基于這層關系，后來大元朝覆滅，大明朝和大清朝與俄羅斯的關系，從那個時候就可以把其理解為“南北朝”的關系了，到如今的延續性的理解，說明歷史存在一定的交合。

實質上，如今的俄羅斯還是非常的欣賞和欽佩我們的，畢竟他們的基因里也流淌著部分華夏民族的血液。所以、我們會感覺到相比西方人，俄羅斯的方式更容易理解一些，這不僅是近鄰的關系，還帶著血緣的天然基因，這就能夠印證西方人說的那句名言：“撕開一個俄羅斯人的皮，會發現他們流淌著蒙古人的血”。同時，在如今的俄羅斯流傳著一個相近似的諺語：“在俄羅斯的鍋底，你總能夠找到蒙古人的影子。”因此，把俄羅斯和我們如今的時局圖簡單的理解為“南北朝”局面，在一定程度上有利于我們“便宜行事”。

（以下是英文版 The next is English edtion）

Global Refuel,Episode 7:The Situation Between Us and Russia Can Be Simply Understood as a“Northern and Southern Dynasties”Scenario

(Evening of December 9, 2025)

Faced with the current complex and delicate international relations, especially regarding international issues between East and West, in order to see through the essence of the problem at a glance and correctly grasp the crucial primary question of "who are our enemies and who are our friends," we might as well simplify our thinking. For example, the relationship between us and the Russian Federation can be understood as a "Northern and Southern Dynasties" scenario. This situation can be traced back to the era of the Great Yuan, the Great Mongol State. At that time, Yuan Taizu, Emperor Chengjisi (Genghis Khan) Temüjin, distributed his armies among his four different sons, leading them to establish their own Khanates.

Among them, his eldest son, Jochi, led Mongol armies that occupied most of Eastern Europe, primarily the Kipchak Steppe, thus laying the foundation for the Kipchak Khanate. It was officially established under the leadership of Jochi's second son, Batu. (Because its Khan's tent used a large golden dome, the West more commonly referred to the Kipchak Khanate as the Golden Horde.)

During the reign of Yuan Taizong, Emperor Yingwen, ?gedei Khan, the famous "Eldest Sons' Campaign" was launched. Although Batu was not Jochi's eldest son, he served as the Campaign's commanding marshal, with the veteran general Subutai as the overall commander. During this campaign, Batu demonstrated his outstanding military and administrative abilities. Marshal Batu established the Kipchak Khanate with Sarai as its capital (the Kipchak Khanate became one of the four major Khanates of the Great Yuan Dynasty). The Kipchak Khanate and other Khanates acknowledged the Great Yuan Dynasty as the central, legitimate, and orthodox authority, subject to the central court of the Great Yuan. Notably, the Kipchak Khanate also ruled over the various Russian principalities of the time, including the Principality of Moscow (the predecessor of the Tsardom of Russia/Russian Empire). The Russian Empire was under the rule of the Kipchak Khanate for over 250 years, which altered Russia's ethnic composition, linguistic structure, and national character.

This specifically illustrates that our Mongolian brothers ruled over Russia, which is equivalent to our historical Great Yuan Dynasty indirectly ruling Russia. Although not directly, and without establishing a provincial system in Russia, the rule was exercised through the Kipchak Khanate in a loose, federative manner. Sometimes the method is not the most important; the fact of rule and control is what matters. This is similar to how, historically, we often exercised a suzerain-vassal relationship over the nomadic peoples of the northern steppes, frequently controlling ethnic minorities through a form of "loose-rein" administration. Therefore, based on this relationship, the subsequent relations between the Great Ming and Great Qing dynasties and Russia, after the fall of the Great Yuan, can be understood from that point onward as a "Northern and Southern Dynasties" relationship. Extending this understanding to the present day shows a certain historical continuity.

In essence, present-day Russia still greatly admires and respects us. After all, their genes also carry part of the bloodline of the Huaxia nation. Therefore, we might feel that compared to Westerners, the Russian approach is easier for us to understand. This is not only due to being close neighbors but also carries a natural genetic connection, which confirms the famous Western saying: "Scratch a Russian, and you will find a Tatar." Simultaneously, a similar proverb circulates in Russia today: "At the bottom of the Russian pot, you can always find the shadow of a Mongol." Thus, simply understanding the current geopolitical situation between Russia and us as a "Northern and Southern Dynasties" scenario is, to a certain extent, beneficial for us to “act expediently.”