劉英：破解消費(fèi)不足，要靠“投資于人”釋放潛力

編者按：中國(guó)正日益重視對(duì)人力資本的投資。2月4日，中國(guó)人民大學(xué)重陽(yáng)金融研究院研究員劉英接受《中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)》專訪，就為何投資人力資本對(duì)國(guó)家未來(lái)發(fā)展至關(guān)重要，以及政府和私營(yíng)部門必須如何協(xié)同推進(jìn)這一領(lǐng)域等問(wèn)題進(jìn)行解讀。

▲英文原文發(fā)表于《中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)》2026年2月4日第8版

“投資于人”旨在對(duì)全人群進(jìn)行全生命周期的能力提升與潛力開發(fā)，從而激發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)的內(nèi)生增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力。

“投資于人”是指緊緊圍繞人的需求而進(jìn)行的投資，包括用于提升教育與技能、健康與醫(yī)療保障、育幼與養(yǎng)老支持、就業(yè)與收入分配、創(chuàng)新與科研人才培育等方面的資金。這些投資有助于釋放消費(fèi)潛力、推動(dòng)創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動(dòng)，為我國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)“人的全面發(fā)展”與“共同富裕”目標(biāo)做出貢獻(xiàn)。

隨著我國(guó)進(jìn)入高質(zhì)量發(fā)展階段，消費(fèi)正在成為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主動(dòng)力。2025年，我國(guó)社會(huì)消費(fèi)品零售總額突破50萬(wàn)億元，對(duì)GDP的貢獻(xiàn)率達(dá)52%。與此同時(shí)，消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)正從“商品主導(dǎo)向服務(wù)主導(dǎo)”升級(jí)。

但是，我國(guó)居民消費(fèi)率長(zhǎng)期偏低，不少人存在 “有錢不敢花”的傾向。有效需求不足成為制約高質(zhì)量發(fā)展的瓶頸，亟須通過(guò)“投資于人”破解。

另一方面，隨著人口老齡化加劇，我國(guó)勞動(dòng)力供給趨緊。同時(shí)，新質(zhì)生產(chǎn)力的發(fā)展對(duì)勞動(dòng)者技能提出全新要求。面對(duì)這一事實(shí)，也需要加大“投資于人”的力度，將人口紅利轉(zhuǎn)化為“人才紅利”。

“投資于人”不是短期刺激政策，而是中國(guó)發(fā)展的重要戰(zhàn)略基石之一，因?yàn)槲覀兣ぷ鞯哪繕?biāo)就是為了滿足人民對(duì)美好生活的向往。“投資于人”不僅是福利性支出，而且是驅(qū)動(dòng)消費(fèi)、支撐產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)、提升全要素生產(chǎn)率的戰(zhàn)略性投資。

▲1992——2025年我國(guó)投資累計(jì)同比增長(zhǎng)速度變化情況

“投資于人”需要多方面的主體共同參與，需要多措并舉。其中，政府和社會(huì)（私人）資本都應(yīng)當(dāng)共同參與“投資于人”的項(xiàng)目。“投資于人”項(xiàng)目一般具有強(qiáng)正向溢出效應(yīng)，項(xiàng)目的實(shí)施可惠及廣大人群。但這類項(xiàng)目普遍具有長(zhǎng)周期的特性，以及短期回報(bào)不顯著的特點(diǎn)，僅靠財(cái)政資金難以全面覆蓋。社會(huì)資本則具有運(yùn)營(yíng)效率高、創(chuàng)新性強(qiáng)等優(yōu)勢(shì)，可有效彌補(bǔ)公共投入的不足。

引導(dǎo)社會(huì)資本參與“投資于人”項(xiàng)目，需構(gòu)建一套完善的政策引導(dǎo)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)和收益分配體系，實(shí)現(xiàn)公共福利目標(biāo)與商業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)可持續(xù)的有機(jī)統(tǒng)一。

首先，政府應(yīng)發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵的引導(dǎo)和催化作用，通過(guò)優(yōu)化制度、穩(wěn)定政策預(yù)期來(lái)降低社會(huì)資本的投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

其次，需要積極探索新的商業(yè)模式，讓人力資本投資形成可持續(xù)的商業(yè)回報(bào)。

最后，營(yíng)造重視人力資本投資的社會(huì)共識(shí)也至關(guān)重要。政府和企業(yè)應(yīng)共同努力，弘揚(yáng)“人才是第一資源”的理念。

需要注意的是，在當(dāng)前強(qiáng)調(diào)“投資于人”的背景下，“投資于物”仍是我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)鍵支撐，在當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型中仍具有不可替代的重要性。“投資于物”，包括對(duì)傳統(tǒng)基建、新型基建和制造業(yè)的投資，構(gòu)成了我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的物質(zhì)、技術(shù)支撐。

“投資于人”與“投資于物”并非相互替代的關(guān)系，而是相互促進(jìn)、辯證統(tǒng)一、協(xié)同促進(jìn)的關(guān)系。二者共同構(gòu)成了新質(zhì)生產(chǎn)力發(fā)展的驅(qū)動(dòng)力。

目前，我國(guó)超大規(guī)模市場(chǎng)潛力尚未完全釋放。因此，一方面，要通過(guò)緊緊圍繞人，加大教育、醫(yī)療、托育、養(yǎng)老等“人”的投資，提升居民可支配收入和預(yù)期，降低預(yù)防性儲(chǔ)蓄。另一方面，為滿足人民對(duì)美好生活的向往，要強(qiáng)化交通、數(shù)字基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、城市更新、農(nóng)村水利等“物”的投資，加快國(guó)內(nèi)統(tǒng)一大市場(chǎng)建設(shè)，提升服務(wù)質(zhì)量與可及性。

英文原文

Investment in human capital aims to enhance people's capabilities and develop their potential throughout their life, thereby stimulating endogenous economic growth. Such investments cover projects to enhance people's education, skills and health, support childcare and elderly care services, boost employment, optimize the income distribution system and cultivate innovative and research talent.

Such investment helps unleash the potential of consumption, allows innovation to play a bigger role in economic growth and contributes to the country's efforts to achieve the well-rounded personal development of its population and common prosperity for all.

As China's economy enters a stage of high-quality development, consumption has become a major driving force for its growth. Final consumption expenditure contributed 52 percent to the country's growth in 2025, with total retail sales of consumer goods exceeding 50 trillion yuan ($7.2 trillion). In addition, consumption of services is gaining momentum.

Still, household consumption accounts for a relatively small share of China's GDP. Many people are inclined to save instead of spending. Insufficient consumer demand is a bottleneck for high-quality development, a challenge that should be addressed through investment in human capital.

As China's population gets older, labor supply has tightened. Also, the development of new quality productive forces requires new skills. Given these challenges, investment in human capital needs to be increased to turn China's waning demographic dividend into a waxing "talent dividend".

Investment in human capital is not a short-term stimulus but a strategic cornerstone for China's continued development. It is not only welfare expenditure, but also a means to increase consumption, support industrial upgrading and enhance total factor productivity.

Both the government and the private sector should participate in human capital investment projects. These projects generally have strong positive spillover effects, and tend to benefit a broad segment of the population. However, they usually require long-term commitment and don't offer significant returns in the short term. The government alone cannot undertake all these projects.

The private sector, which is highly efficient and innovative, could play an effective and complementary role in such investments. Sound mechanisms of policy guidance, risk sharing and profit distribution are necessary to encourage the private sector to participate in these projects, and to promote both public interests and sustainable business operations. In this process, the government should play a crucial guiding role by improving regulations and stabilizing policy expectations.

Greater efforts are needed to explore new business models that enable human capital investment projects to generate sustainable returns. At the same time, it's also important to foster a broad social consensus that values such investment. The government and enterprises should work together to promote the idea that "talent is the primary resource".

While China is emphasizing investment in human capital, investment in physical assets should not be ignored. It remains vital for the country's economic growth and transition. Investment in physical assets, including traditional and new infrastructure and the manufacturing sector, provides the material and technological foundation for the country's economy.

It is worth noting that the two kinds of investment are not mutually exclusive. Rather, they reinforce each other. Together, they form the driving force for the development of new quality productive forces.

Both kinds of investment are necessary for fully unleashing the potential of China's superlarge market. Increased human capital investments in education, healthcare, childcare and elderly care would help enhance the disposable incomes of people and their expectations, thus reducing the need for precautionary savings. On the other hand, higher investments in transportation, digital infrastructure, urban renewal projects and rural water supply projects would improve the quality and accessibility of services and help develop a unified national market.